This year’s Woodward story may be about the horses who are not in the race. Will Take Charge and Palace Malice are skipping for the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Lea who was anticipated to come off the layoff is going the Ack Ack route. A solid field remains and winning the Woodward usually means something. The Spa last week was very demanding in distance races.
Moreno had everything go his way in the Whitney stakes. Benefitted from a very tactical ride, making a key decision to slow down the pace on the backstretch and then creating a gap going into the turn entering the stretch. My dilemma is that the last race may have been 60% race riding and 40% Moreno being the best horse. A short price for a horse with a 3 for 19 lifetime win record is tough to take. Took 3 week break after last race.
Long River has had 3 5th place finishes in a row. no real moves in any of the races – had better form in the past. Could wake up with this bunch.
Romansh alternates strong efforts with moderate efforts. Has flashed some speed in the past and is very capable of giving Itsmyluckyday and Moreno pressure on the front end if the fractions are slow.
Itsmyluckyday adds blinkers and looks to turn the tide on Moreno. Has the speed to take the lead but can rate. Moreno only knows one way – which is to lead. Had every chance to make up ground on Moreno in the last – tired late in the stages of the Whitney and not sure if 9 furlongs is his ultimate calling card at true G1 level.
Last Gunfighter – If Kid Cruz is Batman then this guy is Robin. Records show he is a Thoroughbred so he is eligible.
Prayer for Relief hits hard at this level – not really a Grade 1 horses, but has a large bankroll and fits the right running style for this race. Runs his race and could get a piece of speed backs up quickly.
Zivo Has won 6 in a row and 7 out of 8. He has been on a roll lately and beat Moreno on the square in the Suburban at 10 furlongs. Speed Figures makes him competitive and is rested off the win. Should get the fractions to set up his trip. His running style and conditioning should work in his favor come Saturday.
Betting Strategy – Fair Odds
Moreno 4/1 – not likely
Itsmyluckyday 6/1
Zivo 7/2
Prayer for Relief 12/1
Romansh 7/1
I’m playing aggressively on the multi-race pools in this spot. I’m tossing Moreno from the Pick 3’s and Pick 4 and letting it fly with IMLD, Zivo and Romansh on main tickets and a saver double with Prayer for Relief. I have no interest in Moreno off a great ride, key moves and facing other speed with 1 work since the last race. My official choice is Romansh with a shot at a price if a speed duel happens.