A watered down Wood for 2015 continues a disturbing trend of small fields and low prices on the Triple Crown 2015 trail. El Kabeir takes on Frosted and Dardevil for all the money and G1 rights.
The Skinny:
Tiz Shea D ran ok in the Gotham but was completely outclassed by El Kabeir. Faces better horses and runs 9 furlongs off just 2 lifetime races. Not on my tickets.
Toasting Master ran pretty bad in the Gotham and is only entered because this is a partnership horse and the owners get free box seats or something. Looks out of his league. Best asset is speed and in this race there is plenty.
Lieutenant Colonel ran last in the Gotham. Won maiden in debut on front running biased track. No Chance
Frosted is the wild card. Had throat surgery since last race. Stopped quickly after looking like a 5 length winner in last race. Set above average pace moved way too soon on tiring track in Fountain of Youth. New Rider Rosario will be much more patient and gets to track Daredevil around the track. Expecting a big effort. Cooler weather, softer pace and weaker horses should be the recipe.
El Kabeir is the king of New York. Faces more speed in Frosted and Daredevil. Last race was able to lay off the pace and then make a run in collapsed pace. Capable of winning if other do not bring their best race.
Daredevil has one prep and is the king of the slop. Should be able to slow down the pace and off track should help if it rains. Will be hounded by Frosted and not sure if he wants 9 furlongs. Best chance is if track is sloppy.
Tencendur is another plodder who has been trounced by El Kabeir in both his stakes attempts. Needs to improve by 10 lengths to have a sniff.
Fair Odds:
Frosted 2/1
Daredevil 2/1
The Choice:
Frosted is the class of the race and I refuse to believe the last race told the whole story, he had 4 good races prior to the Fountain of Youth bomb. The choice to win.