On paper the pace for the Withers figured to be controlled by the two dominating speed horses in Samraat and Uncle Sigh. The race did not disappoint. The race was run like a match race and evolved into a match race with Uncle Sigh using the rail to take the lead and Samraat stalked and applied pressure the entire race.
On the backstretch Samraat and Uncle Sigh drew away from the field by 6 lengths and both looked never in danger of not being able to finish. At this point I would say both are even. Samraat has more tactical speed and Uncle Sigh more of a grinder who will always be in a good spot. The rematch may be in the Gotham, although Samraat may rest up for the Wood or Louisiana Derby. Expect multiple horses to ship up from Gulfstream and possibly from out West. The 3rd and 4th place horses were far back and have no room for improvement.
Samraat seems more tactical at this point and this is not your ordinary New York Bred, Aqueduct fractions can be hard to de-cipher in the winter time on the inner, both horses look slower, get them on a fast track and they are running 1:12 and finishing as well. The speed figure came back 108 by TimeformUS which in opinion has the most accurate speed figures.
The Sam F Davis was projected to be a lone speed race with Harpoon. Below is the TimeformUS Pace Projector for the race.
When the gates opened, Harpoon took back and Cousin Stephen inherited the lead with Asserting Bear chasing. Vinceramos got the dream trip and road the rail the entire race, taking the lead into the stretch, staggered in midstretch and held off Harpoon who trailed early at rail was fanned 6 wide on the turn, re-rallied down the stretch and just missed.
The race was ugly late a 27 second quarter from the 6 furlong to 1 mile mark and Vinceramos, and Matador tired noticeably late. Harpoon finds ways to lose races, this time, coming from behind and rallying wide for no reason. The rail was the place to be with several winners riding the rail to victory on the card. Vinceramos does nothing for this handicapper with the slow fraction, the visual staggering down the stretch and riding the rail the entire race. Harpoon will probably run in Tampa Bay Derby.
Overall, Uncle Sigh and Samraat are solid and may be faster than people think. Vinceramos continues to pull up after taking the lead and needs to improve dramatically to continue on with faster horses at longer distance but probably fits in the Tampa Bay Derby and does not need the lead which could come in helpful down the road.