The second leg of the New York Triple Crown prep route, came up similar to the Jerome – small field with a couple of short priced favorites predicted to dominate the wagering.
Uncle Sigh made the field say “Uncle” in his last race, dominating a maiden race by a widening 14 lengths, big wins are common at the Big A during the winter so sorting out the legitimate dominating wins from the “paper” tiger wins is always due diligence. Uncle Sigh was impressive in the big victory, but his debut race reveals more, he was bet down and rallied down the lane to just miss losing in a head bob. The pedigree says middle distance with Indian Charlie (Cradlesong) Pine Bluff. Indian Charlie is known for early developing horses and Pine Bluff throws in some soundness. A string of works in January – indicates that he has not developed any setbacks and has a couple of longer works to indicate fitness. Lots of positive signs in this corner. Recent works, high speed figure, precocious pedigree. Has the speed to press, or do they try and rate 2 to 3 lengths off “sammy” is the question. Tough horse to not include.
Samraat undefeated and untested after three races. New York bred has impressed the figure makers with back to back impressive speed ratings. In his last race he took advantage of being the lone speed and drew off with authority with a big win. Sammy’s maiden win was accomplished with a slow half mile and then finished fast, earning a high speed rating. Samraat runs with a low stride has gotten out of the gate well in all three races, figures to set the pace in the Withers, the race may well be decided if Sammy tries to put Uncle Sigh going into the turn, rather than waiting to come out of the turn. Sammy controls the pace of the race, they have two options, run fast and try and spread out the field. Second option is to slow the pace down and hope to out-sprint Uncle Sigh. A passive race ride is the only thing that keeps Sammy out of the winners circle.
Classic Giacnroll stepped up in the class in the Jerome Stakes and enters the Withers with sharp form. His Jerome race was solid staying close to the pace and pressing winner Noble Moon around the racetrack. Not sure if he can improve much from his current form and may be due for slight regression. If Uncle Sigh and Samraat can improve or repeat previous efforts it will be tough for Classic Giacnroll to find the winners circle.
Scotland enters the Withers as a maiden and figures to leave that way. Ran a career best race in the Jerome facing better horses and continues to race from just off the pace. Pedigree is slanted towards speed with the Mr. Greely influence and 8.5 furlongs against graded stakes competition may be too much to ask in February until he breaks his maiden.
Street Gent put it all together and dominated an above average field in last race. Pedigree indicates distance potential with Street Sense (Gen Corp Purposes) Beau Genius. Last race was aided by slow fractions and although big field the pace was slow. Previous efforts against Cousin Stephen and Mr. Speaker indicate some class potential. Tough call leaning against, will be shorter price than he figures on paper and pace scenario indicates he will have to improve his speed rating by several lengths and come from off the pace in this race to run his best race.
The Pace:
Simple if Sammy goes the lead and sets legitimate fractions on the backside, he has the natural speed to go 47 and open up by 2 lengths and sprint home. If he dawdles early and gets cute, Uncle Sigh has more stamina, been working longer and will take the victory.
The Selection:
Sammy is the best horse and the fastest horse. The best bet in racing is the natural speed horse on an uncontested lead. If he slows down the pace he probably loses. The race may not always go to the swift but that is the way to bet. Samraat.