The Grand Daddy of the Older Division the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga takes place with a proven field of Grade 1 winners and Liam’s Map moving up into Grade 1 Stakes company riding a 4 race win streak.
Whitney Stakes 2015
Honor Code is very capable and the calendar does him no favors. He has traditionally not liked the hot weather and has had some strange mornings for over a month. I believe he can get 10 furlongs. Should get a solid pace to run into, but nothing really fast. Think his better efforts will happen in October and November when it’s colder out. Think he can get the distance but make no mistake his Met Mile was pace aided with the 1:09 and change he won’t get that in the Whitney. Morning Line favorite can win, but demand 5/2 or higher odds.
Tonalist dropped a head decision in Suburban race that featured multiple moves. He has 2 races at 8 furlongs this year and then the 10 furlong Suburban, this distance should suit him well. Figures to be an underlay. Tonalist is a very good horse, but he is not a superstar who will win 3 or 4 races in a row. This is the type of horse who when he runs his best race can win, but low odds will always be the case. Like this horse, but like all older Tapits – they put on weight and look stiff as they get older. Has the class and will run his race most likely.
Noble Bird is 9/2 in the morning line and has a Grade 1 Foster win that should be down-graded due to the biased race track at Churchill Downs on June 13th. Is fast enough and 9 furlongs is stretching his distance capabilities. Look for him to make a move into the turn and his pace presence will be felt, but ultimately he probably sets it up for a closer.
Liam’s Map is the Diaper Dandy, the up and comer prepped with an easy allowance win in most recent start. This is his first Grade 1 test and he faces proven horses of all kinds of running styles and ability. Been working bullets – on paper may have more natural speed than the rest of the field. Could be very tough is ridden aggressively. They want the G1 victory for breeding purposes. The chips are all in on this race, with a horse who has had minor medical issues in the past.
Moreno has his moments and won this race last year on the front end. His lifetime win % is not very strong and faces other speed in Liam’s Map. Someone has to keep him honest, but deep track and tougher field than last year. If he defeats this field It will be a career defining victory. Brings honest pace to the party and has efforts that should ensure a good final time in this race.
V E Day has been in training for this race and loves Saratoga with a couple of wins last year. Grinder and off the pace running style and loves the distance. One of the few 10 furlong horses in training and will be tough in this race as well. Needs a perfect set-up to win. But should finish strong and capable of winning at a decent price. Don’t overlook.
Lea is a strong horse at 9 furlongs and is 0/3 on the year. Lost in the Stephen Foster was due to front running biased track and hits hard in this spot. Gets first run at Moreno and Liam’s Map and is capable of pushing the pace. Pointing for this spot for a long time and trainer Bill Mott has him ready and having a good Saratoga meet.
Coach Inge has turned the corner this year and has fired 3 strong races in a row. Has speed to be near the pace and the ability to finish. Should run a strong race and capable of winning at a nice price. Has run 3 strong races in a row and not sure if he has upside would need others to regress.
Wicked Strong has had good races and strange races this year. On his best day can run from 3rd place and get first run on the closers. He prepped for this on the turf and ran ok to get 2nd. Haven’t seen the spark in a while, but seems to be training forwardly and the trainer points for this meet. Turf to dirt may work and has muddied up form that is better than his past performances indicate. Gets the Sure Win bit for the second time and blowout indicates he is peaking to a better effort.
Normandy Invasion has run 2 subpar races in a row in small fields. Hard to get his true talent ability, but steps into the deep end with this field. Use to have Grade 1 talent, not sure he has that anymore and he may be 9 furlong challenged. But another who can bring pace pressure to this race.
The Choice:
Pace will make the race. Liam’s Map has been training forwardly and comes in the fresh horse. he is going up in Class. Wicked Strong should get a run from 3rd/4th place and ran well at Saratoga last year. My choice is V E Day like the long works, is freshest of them all and cycled into a strong Saratoga meet last year. May be overlooked in the betting. Race profile sets up for off pace runner. Lots of pace pressers making moves into the turn.
V. E. Day
Tonalist
Wicked Strong