This time of the year “value” and Odds on the Kentucky Derby start getting hashed around on Social Media. Many times a good story gets in the way of some of the facts. Let’s take a closer look at recent years and progression of Kentucky Derby Odds betting in recent years.
The modern Kentucky Derby betting began in 1993, this was when 18 plus fields became the norm the first Saturday in May. Average odds and the trend line are showing a gradual increase:
The lowest Derby favorite since 1993 has been Point Given in 2001 at 1.8 odds and the highest “favorite” for the derby was Looking At Lucky who drifted to 6.3 odds in 2010 after drawing the dreaded “1-hole”. Both horses were on the losing end of the wagering as well.
In recent years the favorite going off at higher odds each year is getting more pronounced. The period of 2010-2013 has shown a widening gap on the odds of the favorite:
With more betting online, mobile betting, and a higher percentage of the handle going to exotic wagers, it’s hard to imagine a favorite under 3/1 in the near future with a field over 18 horses.
In 2001 Churchill Downs abandoned “field” entries and coupled entries. In the 90’s several years featured a full starting gate with “field” horses which may have limited win payoffs on a few horses in that time period. In optimal situations with no field wagering and lack of coupled entries. Handicappers should have abandoned “hopeless” longshots.
The actual results have been the exact opposite: Not only has the betting favorite gone up in recent years. “Mr. Irrelevant” the longest shot on the board odds have gone down in straight progression:
Save those souvenir tickets. Startac and Arctic Boy may be the answer to Derby Trivia: Name the last horses to go off at over 100/1 odds in the Kentucky Derby.
The favorite for the Kentucky Derby in 2014 is probably going to be higher than 3/1. The longest shot on the board will be lower than 45/1. Welcome to the pools in 2014.