This year’s West Virginia Derby drew three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Candy Boy, Tapiture and Vicar’s in Trouble all finished in the bottom half of the field that day – but have rebounded with nice efforts and all are capable of winning this big purse at Mountaineer Park.
This race is dominated by the 3 favorites. I estimate about a 92% chance one of the top 3 favorites will win this race: Fair Odds on my line:
- Tapiture: 8/5
- Candy Boy: 5/2
- Vicar’s In Trouble: 7/2
The Skinny:
Vicar’s in Trouble likes to run on the front end, and his two biggest victories happened when he got on the lead with slow fractions. This horse is the opposite of Bayern. Bayern gets the lead by running faster than anyone. So when evaluating his chances – is he going to get the lead with moderate fractions? For Goodness Sake is sharp and could compromise Vicar’s In Trouble on the front end.
Tapiture: Flopped in the Derby, bounced back nice over a week field and dream trip in the Matt Winn. This horse likes to be near the lead, but can make his own trip from a stalking position. Probably likely to be the favorite and should receive plenty of support at the windows.
Candy Boy: Been awhile since the winner’s circle. Last race ran well against Shared Belief. Goes back to Corey Nakatani for this trip to the track and ships from out west – which is troublesome. But the losses are two top horses in peak form. The choice for me to sit the wait and pounce trip.
The Choice:
Candy Boy is top selection, Tapiture is 2nd most likely – can’t endorse Vicar’s in Trouble in this spot.