With the calendar turning next week, let’s take a look at the potential Triple Crown Runners in 2015. It’s part art and science predicting the development of horses as they turn three. My projections are based on three key factors: Pedigree, Performance, and Trip Notes.
Pedigree – I look for soundness in the sire and look for distance and class in the mare. I focus on the first 2 mares. I look for mares who have produced runners with 15% or more win percentage, or 2nd mares who were good race horses and came from a solid family of runners.
Performance – Solid foundation 3-4 races as a Juvenile is the sweet spot. It allows growth and development without too many losses and bad habits forming. 1 bad race can be excused, two is a problem. Look for horses with tactical running styles, or who have experience running inside or outside horses.
Trip Notes – Juvenile races can be dominated by speed. I put a premium on races with full fields. I like horses that can run to par. Maiden victories at 6 furlongs to a mile are the best. Running too far too soon can hamper development and without a break horses rarely cycle back into a new form cycle before June.
In addition to those three factors, I then run every horse through my Kentucky Derby Database which has every horse who has run in the Derby since 1970, this produces a “similarity” score which I match against the three performance factors above.
This list is based on potential only! A horse like Daredevil is not included, because I think he was aided by (2) sloppy tracks and don’t think he has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs on the dirt.
I’m taking the Reggie Jackson approach – “You Can’t Strike out- Unless you take some Big Swings”
I’m taking a swing on some horses who I believe have more upside than horses who may have some “class” but I don’t think they have the talent to move forward. Overall I’m looking for horses with more upside than proven losers, or horses who have run 4 or 5 races with no improvement in speed figures.
The rankings are a formality, three-year old form is a cycle, I’m looking for horses that can ultimately compete in distance races in the spring and summer of 2015.
So with apologies to Om, Aldrin, Madiba, Iron Fist, Chip Leader, Flashaway,Lemon Drop Prize, Daredevil and Red Button, what follows is my attempt at identifying the top 35 prospects for 2015.
35. First Down – Street Sense, Albertrani Thomas – MSW Winner. A mid race move into a hot pace and First Down opened up by 3, winning over stable-mate Frosted. Disappointed in the Nashua in a race that was strangely run with a 6 horse field. Pedigree is tilted towards speed, but still room for improvement and ran too well in his maiden win to be a one hit wonder. Tactical speed and turn of foot.
34. Bow Tie Boss – Candy Ride, Jerkens James – Maiden. Chased Daredevil in a maiden race at Belmont on a sloppy track. Seemed like a race that was meant to just run around the track as he was not urged that hard going into the turn. A. P. Indy is on the mare side and Jerkens does not crank them up for debut wins. May be more of a “summer” horse but with the one race has some racing experience heading into 2015.
33. Frammento – Midshipman, Zito Nicholas P – MSW Winner. This long-winded son of Midshipman has been running with solid horses in his races. What has impressed me is that he never seems to get tired. He doesn’t have the speed, but is building up a solid bottom and come April may be ready to fire a top effort. Solid grinder who just needs to find his race. Could be a Tampa Bay Derby or Wood Memorial type of horse.
32. Leave the Light On – Horse Greeley, Brown Chad – Stakes Winner. Hard to judge this guy, he ran in the mud in the race dominated by Daredevil, was bet down to 8/1 in that race, came back and won in a race that was scheduled for the turf and dominated on the engine. His Remsen may have been a case of the right horse on the best part of the track. Pedigree says sprinter/miler. The stamina comes from the female side, has an even running style and may not necessarily need the lead. Not sure how much more development he has left, but has found some advantageous races so far.
31. Shotgun Kowboy – Kodiak Kowboy, Trout CR – Stakes Winner. The pride of Oklahoma finished the year with 3 fast efforts. The Clevor Trevor stakes was a solid win coming from behind. Finishing fast in the Springboard Mile his head bob loss was much more impressive than the winner Bayerd. Belongs in the Oaklawn circuit and looks like 8 furlongs could be right up his wheelhouse.
30. My Johnny Be Good – Colonel John, Harty Eoin – MSW Winner. Eoin Harty runner broke his maiden in Chicago and came back with a closing second to Eagle in a strong Keeneland NW of 1 Allowance. Colonel John has been a disappointment at stud, but Elusive Quality mare may be a good mix. Has a good running style, has faced classy horses and is working down at Tampa Bay.
29. Unblunted – Sharp Humor, Mccarthy Michael – MSW Winner. The Golden Gate race proved to be a disaster as he was wide for the first half mile and race wide into the stretch. Maiden win finished full of run. Long striding colt was working well. Back to dirt and wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the Sham Stakes with a fresh start. Strong foundation with 3 starts as a Juvenile. Sunland Derby may be another long-term goal.
28. One Lucky Dane – Lookin at Lucky, Baffert Bob – MSW Winner. Light framed son of Looking at Lucky out of Boston Harbor, has an even stride ran a better than looked in a strong paced Breeders Cup Juvenile. Ultimately may only want 9 furlongs, but would not be surprised to seem him at Oaklawn in the spring. Light on his feet with a quick stride, doesn’t carry a lot of weight.
27. Punctuate – Distorted Humor, Baffert Bob – MSW Winner. Big, Blocky and built like a sprinter with a big rear end. Came from behind, passing several horses in the final furlong in debut victory. Pepper’s Pride is the mare and Distorted Humor is more than capable of being a classy miler. Was missing in action for a month on the work tab, but has 1 work back, will be given every chance to strut his pedigree at Santa Anita. Has unique body type and not sure what his running style is yet, next start will tell more.
26. Royal Son – Tiznow, Pletcher Todd – Maiden. Ran twice as a juvenile, was the talk of twitter following his debut race. Stable Mails were on alert as he made start number 2 and disappointed. Given a short break after the 2nd loss. Pedigree says late developer, work tab is coming around. Look for him soon in the entry box.
25. American Pharoah – Pioneerofthe Nile – Baffert Bob – Stakes Winner. Dominated 2 races in front running fashion. Raw speed and big chest. Has a big lung capacity but runs hard and heavy. Horses like this usually can’t take the pounding of a heavy schedule. They have announced a 2-prep campaign to get ready for the Derby. Fast, Big, Hostile and Mobile – The ground shakes when this front-heavy son of the Nile hits the track.
24. The Truth Or Else – Yes It’s True – McPeek Ken – MSW Winner. Built up quite a resume as a juvenile with 7 races. Battled the best of his generation in the big New York races. Champagne, Nashua and Remsen finishes he ran against the race flow in all 3 races. Ultimately he is another who needs a full field and a contested pace. He will pass horses, can run inside and outside. Still think some upside and a break through race is coming at some point.
23. Toasting Master – Congrats – Romans Dale – Allowance Winner. Back to back victories to close the year. Pedigree his tilted towards speed but seems like a gritty runner and has built up some races going into his Sophomore campaign. Has been running on the lead, but looks like he may have push button speed, if they want to change running styles. Purchased for 220K in March, probably a short break before hitting some races in Florida. Not sure if he is a true distance horse 8.5 to 9 furlongs may be top end, but believe the class and speed is good quality.
22. Tough Customer – Giant’s Causeway, Catalano Wayne – MSW Winner. The son of the Iron Horse showed promise with a 5 length Chicago win. Was wheeled back 8 days later in the Keeneland Futurity. Posted 3 works in November. Arch is on the female side and sire gets classy runners. Owners Gary and Mary West buy at a good price point. Look for him to make some noise in 2015.
21 – Tradesman – Street Sense, Albertrani Thomas – Maiden. Darley homebred closed in debut race and then lost to stable-mate Frosted in maiden. Long legs, with a routers build, he runs light on his feet. Upside is large with this long-winded pedigree with a Derby winners as his Sire and Dam Sire – Thunder Gulch.
20. Ocho Ocho Ocho – Street Sense, Cassidy James – Stakes Winner. Hip number 888 has become the Ocho x 3 on the race track. Three races, 3 wins for this gritty guy. Maiden win came from off the pace and dominated late at five and half furlongs. He came out with a purpose on the Breeders Cup undercard and dominated a minor stakes race on the engine. His Delta Jackpot win was game and competitive. Looking at 2 starts for his spring campaign. He is fast and game and accomplished a lot in 6 weeks. Needs to develop but seems to be all race-horse at this point.
20. Imperia – Medaglia d’Oro, Mclaughlin Kiaran – Stakes Winner. Won a stakes race as a maiden on the turf with a quick turn of foot down the lane. Switched to the dirt in the Kentucky Jockey Club with a long-sustained, wide run. Grade 1 winning mare Cocoa Beach excelled on all surfaces. His speed numbers are a little slow. Think he can improve. Sire has mainly produced fillies and many of his runners get hurt early and often. The mare was as gritty as it gets. Hopefully it’s the Goldilocks Mix – Just Right.
19. Blofeld – Elusive Quality, Pletcher Todd – Stakes Winner. Reeled off 3 straight wins with small fields. Built like a sprinter and runs like a sprinter. Has run in small fields and ultimately he may be a miler. Not really sold on him, but does seem to have a versatile running style and has some black type and has some good races to cycle back to in 2015.
18. Spring Quality – Elusive Quality, Motion Graham – MSW Winner. One of the last winners of Rosie Napravnik. Made a winning debut at Keeneland that was visually impressive. Circled the field in a 7 furlong race. Work tab has been consistent in December after 5 weeks off. Deputy Minister puts some class and distance into the female side. Homebred was bet down in debut and trainer is the type that gets the most of talent. Just one race and a solid pedigree thats enough for me to look at.
17. Sky Hero – Sky Mesa, Casse Mark – Allowance Winner. Used a quick burst of speed in a maiden race and allowance race, before chasing a fast pace at Churchill Downs to close the year. Throw out the Churchill race, lots to like with a nice stalking style, built like a router and has a turn of foot to get position, versatile sort may go to Oaklawn this winter.
16. Lord Nelson – Pulpit, Baffert Bob – Stakes Winner. Stakes win was a small field and he was the class of the race. Broke slow at Churchill Downs, but made a long bid while running wide. Eased late in last race. Has a good foundation of works and races and I expect to see him with a strong effort next out. Developed quickly this summer and should be able to fire off the bench.
15. Another Lemon Drop – Lemon Drop Kid, Bauer Philip – Allowance Winner. Lost to Dortmund by 8 lengths and then came back to win in the slop at the Fairgrounds by 5 lengths. Long striding son of Lemon Drop Kid, should relish the distance races of the spring and has 4 races as a juvenile.
14. Astounding – Tapit, Catalano Wayne – Maiden. Ran one race at Churchill Downs closing down the lane as the 6/5 favorite to Toasting Master. Son of Tapit out of Smart Strike has a string of distance influences in his pedigree and no signs of any crazy Tapit tendencies. Is behind a few of these horses with just one race, but long string of works this summer should have him ready to get the victory early on in 2015.
13. Mr. Z – Malibu Moon, Lukas Dwayne – MSW Winner. America’s Bridesmaid with 4 second place finishes. Has danced all the dances and could have 2 more wins. Tough, honest, game will make a lot of money in 2015. Can run on the lead, or from off the pace. Needs a break through victory. Competitive as hell and under appreciated by most fans. Not sure he is G1 type, but Iowa Derby and West Virginia could have his name all over it.
12. Curlino – Curlin – Assmussen Steve – MSW Winner. Put it all together in 3rd lifetime race at Churchill Downs. Has shown different running styles in all 3 lifetime races, ultimately he is a grinder and should appreciate bigger fields and moderate paces. Rubiano on the female side is a sprint influence and that is a concern. Many horses show a big improvement in 3rd lifetime race which Curlino did. Needs to develop more to move up the list and into Graded races, seem him more in the Tapiture mold who may have a good summer in Iowa or the Mountains of West Virginia.
11. Ocean Knight – Curlin – Mclaughlin Kiaran – MSW Winner. Burned up the track at the Big A in his breakout win. Tracking in 5th, rated off the speed downshifted going into the turn and went to the lead and opened up by 3 before being eased late in the race. Gallop out was non-existent so I’m not sure how much he got out of the race. Raw talent and a pedigree with distance on the sire side and middle distance and turf on the female side.
10. Bronze Star – Tapit – Hollendorfer Jerry – MSW Winner. A couple of rough trips to start his career. Looked like a winner in 2nd start before being caught from behind on the outside by Punctuate who the jockey never saw coming. Stretched out and made every pole a winning one at Santa Anita. Like the even running style and has some speed. The case against is with Tapit and Medaglia d’Oro on his Dam Sire side his whole career will be Day to Day.
9. Texas Red – Afleet Alex – Rajun Cajun Boys – G1 Stakes Winner. Benefitted from a fast pace in Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. Chased American Pharoah in Norfolk Stakes. Obviously very talented but not sure he ultimately wants 10 furlongs and want to see him win in a normal race without such a crazy pace and perfect trip. The Breeders’ Cup was a Softball and he knocked it out of the park. Need to see what he does with some adversity. San Vincente and 7 furlongs will be his coming out party in 2015.
8. Upstart – Flatter, Violette Richard – Stakes Winner. Like the way he bounced out of a maiden victory 9 days later with a stakes winner. Pedigree says run all day. Ran a solid 2nd in slop to mud freak Daredevil. B. Cup Juvenile made a mid race move into a hot pace, and ran wide into the lane from an outside post. Big upside in 2015.
7. Classy Class – Discreetly Mine, Kiarin McLaughlin – MSW Winner. Debuted with an impressive turn of foot at the fall Belmont meet. Tough for any horse to go from 1 sprint race to 9 furlong Remsen. Faded late to 4th after pressing pace from outside post. Raced with the leaders into the stretch. Look for him to bounce quickly back into the picture in 3rd lifetime start. Pedigree is slanted towards speed, but solidly built son has a good way of moving and natural speed without the need to lead. Room for growth, may need spacing between races and ultimately will have big efforts followed by regression.
5. Mawthooq – Distorted Humor, Kiarin McLaughlin – MSW Winner. Laid down the law in his 2nd lifetime start – splashing to a 10 length win in the slop as the 2/5 favorite. Ran 2nd in debut to fast winner Ready for Rye who stopped the clock in 1:09 and 4. Normally starting a career with 2 slop races is not a positive indicator. So totally basing this ranking on pedigree, running style and potential. Needs a dry track to see what he can do with an honest pace. Smooth stride in the mud and female side produces runners. Distorted Humor adds class and miler speed on the sire line. Full brother to Machen who was on the Derby trail a few year’s ago and won the Derby Trial at Churchill Downs. Like the upside, but a little lerry of him being a slop freak.
4. Eagle – Candy Ride, Howard Neil – Allowance Winner. Always good to see Neil Howard on the Derby Trail. Debuted at the Pea Patch with a drawing off maiden win. Broke through at Keeneland with allowance win. Lots to like with 4 races as a Juvenile. Tactical speed, classy pedigree with some route influences and long slow works since that race. Smaller horse, but agile, has raced a couple of times at the rail and made wide move in Kee win. Training at the Fair Grounds. LeComte up next. Not bad conformation for a Candy Ride.
3. Carpe Diem – Giant’s Causeway, Pletcher Todd – Stakes Winner. Won his maiden race with basically 5 works, drawing off at the wire with an inside trip and being pressed every step of the way. Keeneland win was a huge race and ran a solid Breeders Cup race, running wide into the stretch and really never running in the race. Router look and distance pedigree
2. Frosted – Tapit, Kiarin McLaughlin – Stakes Placed. Comes from a winning female family and broken his maiden with a big win, pressing the pace and drawing away down the lane with a strong gallop out. His 2nd place finish to stable-mate First Down may have tipped his hand, running wide on the turn and finishing with interest in that race. His Remsen was a strong race on several fronts. Breaking from the 14th post, running wide, making a move into the turn and traveling 60 feet further than the winner of that race.
1. Dortmund – Big Brown, Bob Baffert – Stakes Winner. In a word “big” a son of Big Brown, physically big and big margins of victory. Bulldogged his way to win in maiden score. Overpowered a field at Churchill from the 12 hole and running wide in his 2nd start. Showed a nasty disposition in Maiden Win, this guy doesn’t like being behind horses and despite his huge stride, he runs like Dave Winfield, big long loping strides and galloped out full of energy in both his wins. He has already outrun his pedigree. Has all the intangibles, not a speed ball, gritty, showed some heart at Los Al and raced wide down a long stretch.