This year’s 144th running of the Travers Stakes is a much-anticipated showdown for 3-year-old division leadership with a win by any of the top three contenders cementing their status as Sophomore Champion.
Kentucky Derby winner Orb returns from a freshening after a lackluster 3rd in the Belmont, Palace Malice enters off an impressive Belmont/Jim Dandy Double and Verrazano returns to New York after a couple of walk off wins at the Jersey Shore. The Travers roll call of winners over the years includes Easy Goer, Thunder Gulch, Point Given, Holy Bull, Bernadini and Street Sense.
Run at 10 furlongs in August, the Travers has become the Midsummer Derby and unofficial 4th leg of the Triple Crown, with the heightened awareness of Saratoga, this year’s Travers is an eagerly anticipated challenge for 9 entries many with pedigrees to get the distance.
Romansh leads the Travers entires with the rail and entering with a win via DQ in the Curlin Stakes. Romansh New York Bloodlines sired by Bernadini who won the Travers in 2006, Kentucky Derby winner Go for Gin adds stamina on the female side of the pedigree. With back to back victories Romansh is 12/1 morning line and seems to be on the improve but visually he did not get the Curlin trip at 9 furlongs against lesser horses and was clearly defeated in the stretch by his stable-mate Transparent.
Orb enters the Travers, “Fresh, Fit and Ready” to race according to his trainer Shug McGaughey. Orb failed to validate with Kentucky Derby win with subsequent lackluster efforts in both the Preakness and Belmont. With a long fall and winter campaign, Orb needed a freshening and comes into the Travers off the layoff. The Travers is the first of 3 10 furlong tests for the chesty son of Mailbu Moon. Orb enters with more questions than answers. Was his derby win pace and slop aided. Was his Preakness compromised by Oxbow getting an uncontested lead and slow fractions. Was his flat Belmont a sign that the rest of the crop had improved and Orb had flattened out?
Verrazano followed up a dismal Kentucky Derby showing with a fresh game plan and has had no interruptions from that plan. Wins in the Pegasus and Haskell were impressive, but at face value may have been “enlarged” due to the main challengers in those races both exiting those races with injures. Verrazano passed the Eye Ball Test in each of those. His Pegasus win was push button acceleration and the son of More Than Ready relished the Haskell stretch showing up on Haskell day with a Ray Lewis attitude. The muscled colt, turned equine heads, both male and female with a solid warm up, and all business attitude paid off with a great start, stalked the speed of Oxbow, engaged on the turn and put the race away while Power Broker was making a move on the turn. Big V has the tactical speed to stay close to the leader, the push-button speed to move when asked and the only question left is the 10th furlong at Saratoga.
Golden Soul finished 2nd in the Kentucky Derby because of one reason – a pace meltdown. Since then 10 length and 29 length losses have magnified the plodding style owned by the Diamond empire of Charles Fipke. A top two finish of any kind would take this observer by surprise.
Will Take Charge is a very resilient son of Unbridled’s Song alternating good races with bad races and brings his race with him to multiple tracks. Visually he was gaining at the end of the Jim Dandy but needs one run to run his best race should get a pace to run at in the Travers and best efforts put him in the top discussion. Main negative is that he has not progressed since March, continues to run his race and will need to step up Saturday or a pace meltdown.
Moreno is the speed of the speed and is well drawn from the #6 post position. This speedy son of Ghostzapper has been a late developer just like his sire and the A.P. Indy influence is kicking in on the bottom side. Moreno broke his maiden in his 8th race a visually impressive performance on the Belmont undercard, then came back with a draw dropping score at 6/1 as he was sent to the lead and scored by 7 over a mismatched field in the Dwyer. In the Peter Pan, Moreno again set fast fraction and recorded a career high Beyer speed figure in the losing effort in the Jim Dandy. Traditionally speed does well in the Travers and Moreno should set a controlled pace and possibly uncontested a half in 47 and change is not out of the question Saturday and from there it will be up to J Ortiz to call the shots on the front end. But the main question is that although he is the lone speed, he is not the only speed and at any point in the race Palace Malice and Verrazano can range up with their natural speed. Moreno looked tired at the end of the Jim Dandy and after 3 straight rousing performance a longer trip and step up in class may be asking a lot of this gelding.
War Dancer enters the Travers with a chip and a chair, has run some strong turf races but I have my reservations about War Fronts running long on dirt. Fashionable sire has had some precocious sprinters and some stayers on the turf but has yet to produce a classic distance horse on the dirt. Ken McPeek dead heated for the Travers win last year with long-shot Golden Ticket and no other logical turf races to run War Dancer at this point, testing the waters for dirt routes is good option and War Dancer fits class wise, his main dirt race at Gulfstream was on a speed biased track at Gulfstream which featured Freedom Child and Saint Voyager. So a 3rd or 4th place finish is not out of the question. Likes the distance and is fit for this race.
Palace Malice verified his visually unappealing Belmont score with a authoritative, pace pressing trip in the Jim Dandy. With five straight losses and a bewildering trip in the Kentucky Derby setting a 45 for the half pace and wearing blinkers in the slop. Rested up for the Belmont held sway at the Belmont distance on a track that may not have been fast but may have favored speed the 2nd half of the card. Mike Smith tracked Moreno in the Jim Dandy and recorded the victory and increased his record to 2 for 2 at the Spa. Curlin son has the stamina influence of Royal Anthem in his pedigree, cruising speed and dirt stride make this long striding son one to watch and is a true distance horse.
Transparent has won three of four races but was DQ’d from the Curlin Stakes in his last start. Visually his Curlin score was impressive, waited patiently but the competition was modest and distance challenged. Bernadini’s don’t usually improve after about July of the 3-year-old year so Transparent may have topped out this year with his Curlin victory, only two workouts in August and both on the slow side indicate they may be not hitting the go button hard for this colt who has the Unbridled’s Song influence. Nice Horse, Grade 2/3 type, but hard to imagine him a Grade 1 winner at 10 furlongs at this point in his career.
Handicapping the Travers is different from pontificating the Kentucky Derby. The Derby is won by horses who are peaking, and projecting a new top performance. The Travers with the smaller field and timing in August is usually a handicapping race. Identify the talented horses, look over the PP’s evaluate the pace and trips and pick a horse.
The top three will take a large percentage of the betting handle in pick 3’s and pick 4’s. Value will be had if you think you can beat the top 3 in the multi-race pools.
I think Verrazano is the fasted horse of this crop, his derby loss was came about because of many reasons. He went into the Derby with his 5th start in 4 months, he had been training since December and was not peaking. Big V enters the Travers with a plan and 3rd race of the form cycle. He breaks from the gate alertly in all his races, has the speed to stalk and will have the tactical edge of making the first move on Moreno.
Orb is pointing for a big fall campaign and is natural distance horse and I expect an improved race, have a feeling he will stay closer to the pace than anticipated which will negate his stretch punch.
A case can be made for Palace Malice being the now horse and two for two over the Saratoga trip. His Belmont was stronger on paper than visually and his last race was workmanlike, not sure how much Palace Malice can improve but has tactical speed and will make his move, will also be hit hard at the windows.
Big V has been the man for me all year, he is the horse that is capable of delivering an A effort that turns some heads, he looked on the muscle at the Jersey Shore, expect a sharp performance on Saturday. His Maiden win was eye opening, his Allowance NW2 was dominating, His Tampa Bay Derby win was Sharp, his Wood was workmanlike and his Haskell was mind boggling. Lock up the women and children. Big V is in Town.
Projected Final Betting Odds:
Big V 9/5
Palice Malice 5/2
Orb 7/2
My Choices:
Big V
Orb
Will Take Charge