In our last Tracking with Trakus update we focused on a horse that looked good, but the advanced metrics showed a different story in Constitution. This week we will take an advanced look at Tonalist’s maiden victory at Gulfstream Park.
Since there are few 9 furlong races at Gulfstream Park it was nice to have 3 of them yesterday and then go back to last year’s 9 furlong races to get a track profile of the last 10 races. Below is the basic profile:
Notice that traveling the least amount of feet in the race is not the goal or easy path to victory as noted in the Constitution race only 3 of the 10 winners at 7 furlongs traveled the least amount of feet. In the 9 furlong profile only 2 horses traveled the least number of feet.
What is important to highlight is that of the three 9 furlong races yesterday and compared to the winning trips from last year he traveled 6059 fee which is the most of any of the last 9 furlong winners. Horses like Pickoftheliter and Ciao Bella did not report those winning efforts when confronted with tougher (longer) trips.
Tonalist traveled 29 more feet than the average of the last 10 9 furlong winners, this is almost three lengths.
This to me indicates that he is likely to reproduce a similar effort in his next race, because he was able to overcome adversity with a 3 wide trip and mid pace move. Visually the effort looked good and the speed figure has a chance to be matched in his next race.
In addition to the distance traveled his mid race move while running wide was counter to the track profile. Look how wide he was at the 6 furlong mark compared to recent 9 furlong distance runners.
Establishing inside position down the backstretch always ensure a nice trip, Sweet and Discreet was only 4 feet off the rail, Mucho Man Man 8 feet and again look how impressive that Orb race was last year at the 6F pole and his total feet traveled. Orb’s Florida Derby was a strong race from an advanced metric analysis and the mud and fast pace on Derby Day did not hinder him matching up that effort.
Tonalist was visually a nice winner on “paper” the traditional speed figures are positive (scouts), and the advanced metrics, (stats) agree on this son of Tapit who I expect to see in a stakes race next.