Horseracing is a giant puzzle and many people talk about the numbers in Horse Racing, when times what quantifies as enlightenment is more often than not cherry-picking. Many times people will point out that Horse A is better than Horse B because he ran “wider”, failing to point out when Horse B runs less feet than Horse A that is a softer trip as well. The 4th races at Gulfstream on Saturday is a perfect illustration of using Trakus numbers to identify the deeper story of the race. The general perception is that “Constitution” broke slow and had a horrendous trip. The numbers tell a different story:
The Maiden Special Weight race was a 7 furlong distance: Below is the data from Gulfstream Parks Website Trakus Stats. Below are the last 10 races at 7 furlongs at Gulfstream.
The minimum distance is the minimum distance traveled by any horse in the race, Distance traveled by winner is the amount of distance the winner traveled by the winner of the last 10 – 7 furlong races at Gulfstream park.
Constitution traveled 14 feet less than the average 7 furlong winner of the last 10 races, he did this out of the 6 hole. A true track profile would adjust for post position and field size for each race.
Visually Constitution was almost 1.5 lengths better in saving ground of the last 10 – 7 furlong winners.
Also note that if “saving” ground is the be all to end all why have only 4 of the last 10 winners traveled the fewest distance found the winners circle? My stats show that only about 38% of the time does the horse that has taken the road less traveled won the race.
Breaking down a race like this is the “art” and “science” of handicapping. Visually Constitution looked good winning the race and may go on to win 15 races in a row and be named world champion, but the counter argument that breaking slow cause him to go to rail and the no jockey closed off the rail, allowed him to travel 14 less feet than the average 7 furlong winner and win by a half-length.
Access to Data and applying that data to numerous new statistics and visualizing races is one way that can get the “fantasy” player into the game and increase handle. People bet on sports and play “fantasy” games because of the access of information.
Constitution was visually impressive, but the “hard” numbers temper the enthusiasm in this corner. You say Tomato, I say To-ma-to!