The discussion of track bias is a hard topic for experience players and newcomers alike. Most people agree that a track bias is possible. Overall there are three common types of “Bias”. Speed Bias – Non Tiring – Front Runners do well – usually points to horses who routinely fade and the track carries them a farther distance. Speed Bias – Fast Times – this occurs when horses improve their speed figure by several points. Normally at track and distance run a 1:10 now run a 1:08 and 3/5. Another type of bias is a Speed Bias-Rail Bias – this occurs when horses who ride the rail or closest to rail come back in several races when it looks like they are going to get passed or when horses line up down the backstretch in single file.
Let’s examine the charts at Gulfstream from Saturday, Feb. 21 of the dirt races and try to decipher what exactly transpired. Because something happened, I’m just not sure.
Race #2 featured a MSW race at 6 furlongs. A few first time starters, mixed in with some horses with recent 2nd and 3rd place finishes. Below is the chart:
Point of Interest in this race. Social Inclusion broke 2 lengths slow and rushed up the rail, and not only did stay on the rail he drew off from the field. Tiger Tank was 2nd at the Stretch and 2nd at Finish.
Now lets go to Race 4: Normandy Invasion 1/5 favorite:
Note: Normandy is usually make a mid race mode at the 3/4 pole in route races. He dominated over this field. Chee on the other hand was 2nd at stretch and outfinished Morgan’s Gorilla on the inside, despite being passed at the 3/4 pole and was 16/1 on the board. Stayed inside. No one else closed. Usually in runaway victories. The plodder from behind wins. Not in this case.
Race 5: Global Strike is passed on the turn by a horse who has been coming from behind who make a 3 wide early move into this race to get involved in the pace. Global Strike who was passed last race. Gallantly comes back on the rail and wins.
Notice I’mbetterthangood was 2nd at the stretch call and 2nd at finish. From the top of the stretch to the finish line no change in the running order.
Race 6: Consitution runs the slowed quarter mile fraction of the day and slowest half mile fraction of the day. He is also the lone speed. How do you spell Victory? BIAS.
Note: Tonalist who has never shown speed in a small sample of 2 races, is ridden to gain 2nd position behind Constitution early. Looks tired on turn, hold 2nd from the 3/4 pole to the finish line.
Davona Dale time: Again undefeated heavy favorite Onlyforyou wins. Now 4/4 with the victory.
With 2 wins from the off the pace in her career sprinting and possibly pointing for the Kentucky Oaks, maybe a trainer and jockey would rate her a little bit and teach her to stretch out the speed. WRONG! Castellano sends from the gate, and scrubs on the turn, repelling every challenge from House Rules, who although a nice horse, is being scrubbed by Solis going into the turn and still finishes 2nd clearly overly the field. Above par fractions, but final time not out of the ordinary.
The Grand Daddy of them all The Fountain of Youth. Wildcat Red the Florida Bred by D’wildcatspeed wins a battle that saw these two horse open up on the field within a quarter mile out of the gate. Derby hopefuls are often rated, trying to teach them to get the distance:
Point to note, three times in this race, General A Rod took the lead on Wildcat Red and three times Wildcat Red came back on the inside of the track. Both horses being hard ridden from the half mile pole to the finish line. The jockeys were not even attempting to race and Castellano was involved again making the decision right out of the gate to go to the lead, he easily could have laid back. Instead took it to a horse coming out a 7 furlong race from the get go.
Speed is a universal bias, why run slow when you can run fast, it’s true in High School Track, College Track and Horse Racing. The fastest horse wins. Normally a horse opens up, puts the race away and then closers come in. Thats the way races are run.
Look at the charts again:
- Social Inclusion increased his lead from 5 1/2 furlongs to 7 1/2 furlong from stretch to wire.
- Normandy Invasion increased his led from 4 1/2 to 7 3/4 from stretch to wire.
- Global Strike was head and back back along the inside to get the win.
- Constitution increased his advantage from stretch to wire from 2 1/2 to 3 1/4 lengths
- Onlyforyou increased advante from 2 lengths to 2 1/4 lengths – Castellano pumping from the start.
- Wildcat Red and General A Rod ran 23 for quarter and 46 for half and stayed even entire race. Both ridden with no mercy from Castellano and Saez.
Normandy Invasion is the only logical finish he towered over that field. The rest are dressed up wins.
The problem with all the closers is that some closers, were closing, others were not. Some closed on the rail, others closed on the outside. This was one of those days that the hot weather was an issue for some horses. Other horses were tired after a half and losing ground. Were horses closing or were other horses fading?
There is no right or wrong answer.
Onlyforyou took advantage of a severe bias and benefitted.
Constitution took advantage of a severe bias and benefitted.
My final hypothesis is this:
60 % – Speed Bias – Non Tiring
20% – Inside/Rail Bias
10% – Heat/Tiring Track
10% Javier Castellano taking advantage of a good thing. “Greed for lack of a better term – is Good”