My Monday night homework came from Twitter when @insidethenumbers challenged me to preview the highly anticipated Gulfstream Park race on Friday for talented Sophomores with Triple Crown aspirations.
Cousin Stephen impressed with a daylight score in a MSW at Aqueduct on November 7th. Over the year’s I have grown skeptical of runaway victories at the Big A, my spider sense has shown over the year’s some horses are not able to duplicate huge daylight victories at other tracks. With that in mind, “Stephen” visually looked the role of a winner from the 4 furlong pole to the wire, the race favorite did not fire and it was a 6 horse field. The 3rd place finisher in that race Street Gent did come back to win. This is a racing pedigree: Sire Proud Citizen finished runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and tends to pass along miler types, while the mare Gallant Dreamer was stakes placed and I had the pleasure of seeing her at Canterbury Park in the Hoist Her Flag Stakes a few year’s ago. Has the potential to improve and many horses who improve in 2nd start often match that performance in 3rd start.
Hy Kodak Warrior is proved at this level and finished runner-up to highly touted prospect Coup De Grace over the Hallandale oval on December 15th. Nine furlongs may be out of reach for this son of Kodiak Cowboy, but the female side of the pedigree does offer distance with Unbridled as a stamina influence. Fit and speed figures fit this class level, can win if other horses don’t improve.
Top Billing is the likely favorite and has more “Internet Cred” than any other contender in the race and may go off as a sub-even money favorite. This son of Curlin, split horses like a seasoned veteran in his debut win at Laurel, graduating in the slop with a powerful 5 length win doing his best running down the long Laurel stretch. Top Billing has a solid female side of the pedigree and the “human connections” add pizazz with Shug McGaughey calling the shots and “The Truth” Joel Rosario in the saddle. A few things to ponder before you go cash in your 401K, he is moving straight from a 6 furlong race to a 9 furlong race, has not raced over the Gulfstream surface with his workouts coming at Payson, his one race does not seem to have the early speed to stay with the field on a surface that can favor speed at the 9 furlongs distance. Long term, lots of potential, very vulnerable at a short price on Friday if not ready to produce an above average speed figure for distance and class.
Commissioner has not run since a slow MSW victory at Saratoga back on August 28th. He was included the Derby Future Pool 1 wager so has his supporters. Commissioner was also bet down in both his starts, his debut race at Monmouth was average, but this son of A. P. Indy out of a Touch Gold is bred to develop late. A. P. Indy has been identified for years as a sire of distance horses and they do their best running during 3 year-old season. Touch Gold was a late developer earning the bulk of his career earnings after July of his 3 YO campaign. Will need to improve off last race but one to watch.
Ichiban Warrior comes in as the speed of the speed with dominant victories at Churchill Downs and Keeneland on his resume and a stakes-placed effort to Coastline in the Street Sense Stakes Race. With no other speed in the race and fresh off a 5 length win at Churchill Downs on Nov. 29th, Ichiban may be let go in the wagering and with the Dynaformer pedigree on the female side may still have some developing of his own.
Pace: Ichiban Warrior looks like the speed of the race and fits class wise, Hy Kodiak Warrior will be close to the pace and may sit the perfect trip in 2nd and get first jump on the closers. Commissioner should trail the field early and will look to make one run
Selection:
Ichiban Warrior at overlayed odds, with class and speed is the play, Cousin Stephen and Top Billing round out my top three.