Friday’s Gulfstream Park Allowance race, was one of the most anticipated and discussed 3 year-old prep races last week. Top Billing debuted at 6 furlongs at Laurel Park and was attempting to run 9 furlongs in his 2nd lifetime start. While handicapping the past performances of the Gulfstream Park race last week, it occurred to me this would be quite the accomplishment if he was able to win a 9 furlong race in just his second lifetime start and with one sprint prep. The fact that he was even running in a 9 furlong race in 2nd career race was unique.
With most handicappers focusing on speed figures, one of my research areas has been on development and similarity scores. Similarity scores are popular in baseball and basketball where they take certain characteristics of similar ballplayers and project their “careers” going forward. If a 20 year baseball player hits 20 homes runs with 10 stolen bases and bats .250 they query the database of major leaguers who have the same stats and then find the most comparable match and then try to project the player in question. Some advanced analysis includes things like height, weight and race into their calculations. Other sports have easy access to data and horse racing is very limited in this capacity.
Similarity scores intrigue me in Thorougbred Racing, especially on the Triple Crown trail, since the races are similar dates on the calendar every year and all thoroughbreds are forced to either adapt or not make the race. I have developed a database with over 1,000 Stakes Horses over the year’s and have also entered the past performances of very Kentucky Derby starter since 1987 and have another Kentucky Derby data set with every starter back to 1971, the last few years, I have been working with “similarity” scores to find comparable horses who offer unique past performance profiles.
With that background, I queried my data and since 1988 453 horses have started in the Kentucky Derby. One horse made the Kentucky Derby with a sprint race (defined as 7 1/2 furlongs or less and then straight into 9 furlong race. My curiosity was confirmed, Top Billing is attempting a very unique route. The once horse you ask with a similar development profile to Top Billing: Dunkirk! Dunkirk ran in the 2009 Kentucky Derby. Below are his past performances of his first two career races.
Dunkirk is not an absolute match to Top Billing. Top Billing ran 6 furlongs in his first race and 9 furlongs in his second race, but with similarity scores, you match as many data points as you can and come up with a similar match.
A further query shows many horses have attempted the sprint, 1 mile race attempt: Goldencents and Verrazano from last year were recent examples and many horses did the sprint prep and then ran in the Champagne which is a one mile Graded Stakes race. Also notice Dunkirk won both his races and Top Billing finished 2nd last Friday which further makes them less similar, but still a close match.
If you see the glass half full, and a fan of Top Billing, below is a horse who lost his 6 furlong race and then won his second race. Running 6 furlongs in first race and 8.5 furlongs in second race. Just a half furlong more in 2nd race would make it closer. If Top Billing “develops” into Summer Bird that would be a nice race horse!
This is not meant to be a betting angle, but Top Billing is attempting the road less taken, it will be interesting to watch his development in the next few months. Since 1988 453 horses have made the Kentucky Derby starting gate, only one was able to sprint first race and run 9 furlongs in 2nd lifetime start. The irony that the 1 starter was by Unbridled Song is the fuel for another column.
Do you think Top Billing is on the “right” path?