Jerome Stakes
El Kabeir captured his 2nd consecutive stakes win and 10 Kentucky Derby Points coming just off the pace in the Jerome and drawing off to the win on a slow/demanding track at the Big A.
El Kabeir broke quick and straight and then bobbled a bit. On the inside this allowed Ostrolenka to break quick and establish position at the rail with Ackeret, Nasa and El Kabeir 4-wide on the outside.
Ostrolenka established position on the backstretch and was able to establish a one length lead down the backstretch being chased by Nasa without much pressure. El Kabeir relaxed from the 3-wide position and tracked comfortably without using his speed or wasting energy.
El Kabeir was asked for speed and quickly responded moving up 3 wide coming into the stretch, putting Nasa away and opening up 2 lengths at the 1/8th pole and then drawing off to the victory. The gallop out was solid and overall the race was not draining.
Ostrolenka was very disappointing and has no visible excuse, he ran a sharp opening quarter, but had inside position and led coming into the stretch and tired badly down the lane. He will probably go back to New York Breds.
Nasa ran well, probably improving from his last race while no match for El Kabeir, he had a good trip and just was not quick enough to run with El Kabeir. Will probably see him in the Withers or the Gotham.
The winner El Kabeir has now won 3 races. His maiden win was a dominating performance and he has noticeably relaxed in his last 2 races, showing a good turn of foot at Churchill Downs and then coming back and looking very polished in the Jerome. The Withers and Gotham are logical next spots and his speed figures from the Kentucky Jockey Club and Jerome put him squarely in the top 20 contenders from the Sophomore crop.
Visually El Kabeir is a leggy colt, that looks like a router, and while he has a quick turn of foot, he has learned to relax and rate in his last 2 races. Speed is always dangerous and at this point he has a strong foundation with wins at multiple distances without draining the tank.
Mucho Macho Man
The Mucho Macho Man Stakes played out differently on the race-track than the race appeared on paper. Post Position may have ultimately decided the race with Bluegrass Singer on the inside able to keep Mawthooq to the outside for the first half mile while Mawthooq was rank early he settled a quarter-mile into the race and was allowed to rate with a 3-wide trip.
Bluegrass Singer was on the engine and responded when pushed by Mawthooq came to his outside entering the stretch, his recent form and win over the track allowed him to open up a lead coming into the stretch when Mawthooq tired and held sway in the lane when Ami’s Flatter made a run mid stretch.
Visually Ami’s Flatter had the perfect trip. He broke well, rated on the inside, found a pocket going into the stretch and was not able to outrun Bluegrass Singer in the race to the wire, he was ok on the Gallop out while not gaining any ground on Bluegrass Singer.
The fractions in this race I believe are wrong. Gulfstream has the fractions as 44 and change for the 1/2 mile and 1:09 and change for the 6 furlong call. From adjusting the first quarter fractions, I have them more realistically at 46 and 2 and 1:11 and 1 which is more in line with recent performances.
Overall Bluegrass Singer was sharp for this race, had a good post position and was ridden hard to win this race. Not sure he has much upside. He was bet hard at the windows and had a recent race over the track. I think this was probably the peak for Bluegrass Singer, how long he can hold his current form will be the key question moving forward. Long term not sure he really wants 9 furlongs against G1 competition. This was a demanding race and have a feeling the 2 big efforts will have a cumulative effect on Bluegrass Singer down the road.
Ami’s Flatter was running on dirt for the first time and moving up in class, ran well, but needs to improve, it looks like he wants some distance and could possibly go to the Holy Bull or Fountain of Youth. He improved without draining the well and with only 2 lifetime races, still can reach a new level in career start #3 or #4.
Mawthooq was rank early and chase from a 3-wide trip, entering the stretch he was tired, which was expected since it was his first race over a “Dry” surface, he was basically eased late so don’t let the 9 length margin define his effort, he is capable of much better, but not sure he really wants 9 furlongs either. I expect to see him possibly in the Fountain of Youth. With 3 lifetime starts and only 1 on a dry surface and his maiden win was a non-demanding effort improvement is still projected.