This week fan favorite Tampa Bay plays host to a 50 point Derby prep. Vinceramos won the Sam F. Davis, a couple of new horses enter the mix for this race looking for Derby points. No more 6 horse fields – every race will be earned.
Surfing U S A is lightly raced and when last on the track set the pace in a non-winners of 2 allowance at Gulfstream. Has used tactical speed as his main weapon. He is not a need the lead type but lack of dominating front-runner in this race, makes him a threat to go for the lead. This horse is probably being rushed a little bit. Visually looks like a leggy router and seems to ration his speed with a long stride may do better at 8.5 furlongs and 9 furlongs near the front end of the field. Giving some conditioning and experience away to several foes. Has 4 workouts since last race, but Tampa Surface plays “deeper” than Gulfstream. Not top choice but has a shot.
Conquest Titan elected to skip the Fountain of Youth for a couple of weeks of rest, recent workout indicates fitness. Visually his Holy Bull race was a solid 2nd. The race has been verified – with 3rd place finisher Intense Holiday winning the Risen Star and Financial Mogul running 4th in the Gotham Stakes. New running style in last 2 starts and has shown tremendous improvement as a late running router. Speed figures in last 2 races mark him as one of the favorites in this race. Class is not an issue with 4 stakes appearances in 6 lifetime races. Bloodlines and running style suggest 8.5 furlongs should not be an issue. Likely favorite but will need his best race to win this.
Vinceramos came home slow in the Sam F Davis visually and had the perfect trip, sitting tucked in at the rail. Harpoon ran a poor race in New York, suggesting the form of the Davis is suspect. The worst type of favorites are the ones who look bad visually, he staggered home in the last race. The final time was slow and the race fell apart late on the track. Has worked steady since that race and physically is lightly raced and should run his best race. Seems slow and not sure what the upside is for this son of Pioneerofthenile. In maiden win ran erratic down the stretch and in last race did not look convincing near the wire. Needs to improve to win this race. Likely not to be favored but if he does go favored very beatable and potential false favorite. Final quarter of last race was snail-like. If you didn’t go to the wedding last race at 14/1 – Don’t go to the funeral.
Matador was hit in the whip in the last race and showed a lot of grit down the late in that effort. The son of Malibu Moon out of Elusive Quality mare has only one dirt start, but overall good form in all his races. Has started 5 races in his career all in stakes events. Running style ensures he should get a good trip and a little improvement puts him in the mix. His best race was an early/presser style on the turf last October and may have made his move too soon in last race. Ole!
Cousin Stephen ran his best race to date in the Sam F. Davis and had every chance to win that race and was out-run late by both Vinceramos and Harpoon. Preferred running style is a Presser, but have a feeling his peak has been reached at this time and not much development left. Others would have to regress for him to emerge on top.
Ring Weekend comes in off a maiden breaker in last race at Gulfstream, so is giving up a little class and experience to the field. His victory out of the 10th post position in last race is one of just 4 winners from the 10th post or greater in 60 plus races over the last 4 years at Gulfstream. Made middle race move and put the field away and looked tired late but the effort was solid. His best race was at Keeneland in a loss when he pressed a fast pace. Several of his races put him in the mix in the Tampa Bay Derby. Many Tapits string their best races together in career starts 4 and 5. Son of Tapit may be putting it all together in time for a nice run this Saturday. Has faced 13 and 11 horse fields in last two races and that may come in handy Saturday.
Coltimus Prime is making his first start of 2014 but comes in with a few positives. Strong juvenile foundation with 3 starts. Sire Milwaukee Brew was a solid 10 furlong distance horse and brood-mare sire Distorted Humor adds a dirt and speed influence on the mare side. Showed speed in breaking his maiden and winning by a widening margin with a Big Win. His Display Stakes was a gritty loss to the talented Jose Sea View. Speed, grit and solid form overall. Workout pattern in February has been solid with 6 workouts to get him ready. May be lover-looked in the betting. Capable of winning this race and slight improvement puts him in the win as one of top three choices.
East Hall was a surprise entrant to the field. Early speculation after the Fountain of Youth was that Florida Derby would be the next logical target. East Hall is a “Tweener” he’s better than a Listed Stakes horse but not quite a G1 horse. Many of the Derby preps are really NW of 2 or G3 races, despite the official grading. Runs from behind, not sure if he has the speed to compete early and most likely will be out-finished by Conquest Titan.
Hy Kodiak Warrior enters fresh and with a touch of class in this field. Son of Kodak Kowboy has a speedy pedigree influence on the top but Unbridled adds a little stamina on the mare side. Chased wide two races back in allowance race versus Coup De Grace. Ran the widest and closed in tandem with Top Billing on January 3rd. Short refresher from the January 3rd race and back to back bullet works of five furlongs at Calder are interesting. Calder plays a little slow. His work two back was out of gate. His speed figures are maybe a little low, but everything else is a positive and the price is right. If you play pick 3 and pick 4 – hard to toss this guy.
The Pace:
Projecting the pace of this race is proving a little tricky. Coltimus Prime was sharp last year, but they may be trying to rate a little off the layoff. Surfing USA is capable of having the lead. Most likely one of them two leads at the half mile pole. The field could get bunched on the turn when Matador, Ring Weekend and Hy Kodiak Warrior close in on the scene. Conquest Titan will be the deep closer.
The Choice:
Coltimus Prime, Hy Kodiak Warrior and Conquest Titan are usable in multi-race exotics. I’m going with Hy Kodiak Warrior to spring the slight upset and expect Coltimus Prime to run a huge race off the couch. Conquest Titan is in a great spot and would be no surprise. To me Vinceramos is a vulnerable favorite and a bet-against.