A competitive field for the Tampa Bay Derby has gathered. Ocean Knight adds depth to the field which includes much talk about Carpe Diem.
The Skinny:
Divining Rod was able to milk the slow fractions in the Sam F Davis. Think he regresses in this spot facing more speed and more class in this race. Ultimately he will be a turf horse.
Ocean Knight has only 2 lifetime starts and has to ship North to the home track horses. Closed gamely in the Sam F Davis off slow fractions. May be vulnerable at a low price shipping in and facing more pace pressure than last race. Will be heavily bet based on connections and pedigree potential, but speed figure wise he is only slightly better than a few other top contenders. Was going to run in Gotham, but staying in Tampa seems logical, especially with the cold weather.
Carpe Diem turned heads last fall at Keeneland with a 6 length win in the Keeneland Breeders Futurity. A 2nd place finish in the Breeders Cup was a solid race, trailing behind the field and then circling the field while running the widest of them all. Comes in off the layoff but will be tough in this spot.
My Johnny Be Good has been working forward since a 3rd place finish in the Sam F Davis. He’s capable of going for the lead or running off the pace. Needs to step up, but will be in the mix as they turn for home.
Danzig Moon comes in sharp and ready to fire a big effort. Dusted a maiden field in most recent race, while making a 3 wide move. Showed class last year as a juvenile. Tactical speed and quick turn of foot on the turn may give him his best chance to go for the lead in a contested pace.
Ami’s Flatter made little impact and faces overall tougher horses in this spot. Been on the work tab with several works in last race. Should be able to get the distance but fits in the 2nd tier of horses. 3rd or 4th place looks like ceiling.
Souper Colossal is a late entrant to the field. He prepped on the turf and came off the pace in that win. Ultimate goal is Florida Derby. Has enough speed and class to be competitive in this spot. Dangerous at a price. He is also entered in the Swale on Saturday. – Scratched Thursday morning – Due to Fever
Great Stuff enters as a maiden and has faced good horses. Running style puts him in a rough spot and the pace may not be that fast. Will be running late but in this spot faces better horses.
Moonlight Bandit was another surprising entrant to the field. Adds some depth. Best running style is to come from mid pack. Has a long string of works. Throw out his Remsen he is better than that race shows. Looks a little over his head in this race, but one to watch down the road. Like the move from turf to dirt in this spot.
Fair Odds:
Carpe Diem 5/2
Danzig Moon 4/1
Ocean Knight 5/2
Souper Colossal 8/1 – Scratch
The Choice:
Any one of 4 horses can win. Danzig Moon comes in sharp. I’m going to take a shot with Souper Colossal. – Souper Colossal is Scratched as of Thursday Morning. New Selection is Ocean Knight. Figures to have good position turning for home and 5/2 is fair odds.