New Mexico and Mine That Bird’s former stomping grounds are the scene of this 50 point Derby prep. Sunland Park with a purse of 800,000 dollars has attracted the attention of Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher who both send two horses looking for cash and a Golden Ticket to the big dance in Louisville.
Bourbonize ran a credible race against stakes company last out in the Southwest Stakes. He did so with a wide post and finished moderately down the stretch. Improvement is to be expected and should sit back and make his run. Pace figures to be fast and if it gets contested the closers should have something to run into down the lane. Many horses improve in their 3rd and 4th race of form cycle so still capable of moving forward.
Commissioner was a surprise addition to the field last week. This horse has the pedigree and talent, but speed figures have come up light in the past few races. Long-fused horse should relish the 9 furlongs. Longer works of late should have him ready to possibly show more speed and lay closer to the pace in this field. Capable of improving this is one to watch as they turn for home, if within a couple of lengths can out-finish them all. Blinkers could be the key. Shipping and running on hard surface are question marks. Liked his grit and finish in the allowance race against Top Billing and has been on the winning end of two close races.
Midnight Hawk chased California Chrome a couple of weeks back in the San Felipe and was no match for that beast that day on that track. Since he is in sharp form and worked well they ship in for a chance at a big purse and more points. He chased in his last race and has been headstrong in all his starts. Expect him to be sitting behind stable-mate Chitu in this race make his move approaching the turn. Should like the Sunland Surface being a son of Midnight Lute who had some winning progeny last year over that surface. Distance limitations are going to be tough, hard to imagine him winning at 9 furlongs.
Chitu has a pedigree that says sprint, and he ran a credible 2nd to Candy Boy in the Lewis Stakes. Workout of 7 furlongs has him on edge for a big race and should dictate the pace. Speedy son of Henny Hughes should set an honest pace and with short Sunland stretch should run a good race as the likely favorite. Pedigree and running style is the type that has dominated at Sunland in recent year’s and I expect him to be sent to pick up the purse in this big added-money event. Speed Figures says he is a fast horse and running style puts him on the engine.
Global Strike showed some grit in last race, losing the lead and then coming back to claim the victory. Chased Tonalist 2 races back and has been competitive in all his efforts. Pedigree and running style is built for distance. Has shown a big improvement in last 2 races and 3rd race of form cycle points to top effort. May not have the speed to stay with Chitu and Midnight Hawk, so tracking in 3rd place could be what he supplies to the pace this race. Facing winners for the first time. May not have enough speed to stay with the speed and stable-mate Commissioner will probably out-kick him late. One to watch down the road.
Tanzanite Cat caught a front-running track in the Smarty Jones and combined with little pace pressure was able to withstand a little heat and draw off to an easy victory with the short one mile stretch run of Oaklawn Park. Stepped up in class in the Southwest he was overmatched and was never able to use his speed in that race. Rested and dropping in class, faces other speed horses in the Sunland Derby and is capable of doing better than last race. The pace of this race and running styles will not allow him to run his best race. A win is tough to predict. Tab back for another day.
Garen is a half brother to Breeder’s Cup Classic winner Invasor so he came to the races with big expectations. His debut race was a sprint and ran in a key race with Cherubim being stakes placed and Pimpernel a multiple winner. Garen stretch out last race using a popular sprint/sprint/route pattern on the stretchout and may have found his niche as an on the pace and near the pace distance runner. Faces winners for the first time and more speed. Expect him to be a pace presence but weaken late with the contentious pace.
Rebranded carries the pride of New Mexico into this race, but that may not be enough to take home the money. Switched trainers over the winter and Tiznow and A.P. Indy pedigree indicate he may get better with age and distance. Was bet down as a juvenile against Strong Mandate, Mosler and Cousin Stepehn so he has faced some talented maidens. His last race he lost to the undefeated Proceed. Contender if you project some improvement with the pedigree. Running style fits as off the pace presser and if he makes an impact it will be late in the race.
Pace: I’m expecting Chitu to show the speed and attempt to run away with the race from Flag Fall to That’s All. Midnight Hawk will be in the role of presser. Tanzanite Cat will also press the pace. and Global Strike is capable of showing speed as well..
The Choice: I look for Chitu to get the job done here. His last race he showed speed and he runs on the engine looking for a big paycheck. Son of Henny Hughest may not want much longer, but this is a big purse and seems to be working well and has been pointed to this race for a couple of weeks. Should love the hard, speedy surface of Sunland. Has speed and pace edge over the rest of the field. Commissioner is slow, but recent works indicate more speed, lightly raced still has room for improvement. Obvious 2nd choice if Chitu can’t get the distance.