The Sunland Derby draws a compact field with Firing Line and Lord Nelson towering over the field.
The Skinny:
Firing Line enters with a lot of expectations. A sharp turn of speed and has been extremely game in his last 2 races. Takes a class drop and needs a win in this spot. Gary Stevens rides and may be forced to the lead again. Not sure he is a “true” front runner but is much the best horse in this spot. Ideally he tracks Lord Nelson for 6 furlongs and gets his much needed 2nd win. Workouts have been solid and enters with a lot of positives.
Lord Nelson ran evenly against better horses and has the two week turn-around. I expect him to be sharp and go to the lead with an aggressive ride from Martin Garcia. Has enough talent to take these horses a long way. Capable of winning but most likely runs 2nd.
Where’s the Moon won the Mine the Bird prep race, but the speed figure was lower than Firing Line and Lord Nelson. Has a nice running style and can close from off the pace but clearly stepping up in class.
Why Two has won 2 races in a row and moves up in class. Not sure he can hang with the top horses in this race.
Malibu Mogul is the local Sunland Horse and would need to improve by 10-15 lengths to be capable of winning this race.
Tiznow R J ran a solid LeComte race engaging for the lead and finishing 3rd. Cambe back with a dull Risen Star but that may have been a quick turn around for him. Pedigree is more late developing and works remain sharp. Expecting a strong race, but not sure he can handle Firing Line. If Firing Line loses this may be the horse who has the most upside.
Pain and Misery has been entered in a variety of races. Not sure he is a 9 furlong race on the dirt.
Dirt Monster seems like more of a sprinter and class level is suspect for this type of race. Not on my tickets.
Fair Line:
Firing Line 4/5
Tiznow R J 5/1
The Choice: This is Firing Line’s race to lose. Has tactical speed, has faced tougher horses. Drops in class with sharp works and expecting him to win the race and stamp himself as a top 10 Kentucky Derby contender.