A competitive field of older horses hit the track under the lights at Churchill Downs. This traditional Grade 1 feature, has one of the top older horses in Will Take Charge looking to rebound and a couple of up and comers on the improve.
Revolutionary may be the now horse. After losing to Will Take Charge at Oaklawn despite a controversial stretch run, he came back and pulled a Silky Sullivan type move coming from 30 lengths behind to capture the Pimlico Special. The Pimlico Special was odd, the pace was not that fast and Revolutionary broke slow again at the start of that race. Revolutionary has broken slow 5 times in 12 lifetime races. He needs to correct the tardy starts to be a serious player in the older division. He is one of the few horses where 12 furlongs is his optimum distance. Should rally but probably 2nd or 3rd. Needs a fast or contested pace to win.
Jaguar Paw steps up into the Graded Stakes races and has pressing speed. Pace profile does not fit him the best. He doesn’t have the speed of a Moonshine Mullins and will not be able to out-kick the closers. Overall not enough class, not enough speed and may not be in best form.
Moonshine Mullin has won 4 in a row. His last race was the perfect storm. He got the flyer from Calvin Borel, his main challengers didn’t fire, and a couple of horses had bad trips. Do not expect a repeat of the last trip and the extra 16th of a mile will prove troublesome for this warrior who was claimed for 40K back on November 30th and has paid all the bills since then. Game veteran may be over-bet off the win streak. Not on my tickets.
Will Take Charge looked lethargic in the post parade for the Alysheba and ran a dull race losing by 10 lengths. Gary Stevens rides again and if he brings his A Game he wins for fun. His running style is in flux right now, he used to come off the pace. In recent paces he has run close to the pace. Look for him to lay 5-6 lengths off the speed and make his move. Watch closely in post parade. With the cooler weather at night should bounce back with a better race. Will be heavily favored – not sure if he is a single in this race.
Mylute has a horrible trip in the Alysheba and is capable of much better. His prep race at the Fairgrounds was a fast race. Has back races capable of winning this. Recent works over Churchill surface have been solid. Expecting a top race from this back-classer.
Departing the class and prep race and should be ready to fire a top effort. Running style fits the pace of the race. His Super Derby and West Virginia running lines are capable of winning this. Could be another who is able to make a movie going into the turn and may get the jump on Will Take Charge.
Golden Ticket runs a pretty consistent race. Last race had dead aim on Moonshine Mullin and stopped running in mid stretch. Odds will be low for a horse who likes to party, but doesn’t seem prepared to clean up at the end of the race.
Long River will be over-bet based on the connections. His speed figures are solid but may be a little high. Has the pedigree and should get the distance, he seems overmatched but figures in the mix.
Prayer for Relief ran a winning race last time at Pimlico and was nabbed in the shadow of the wire by Revolutionary. Runs best races with one big run. Capable of showing speed. Nine furlongs are not his best distance.
Pace: Moonshine Mullin will have the early zip. Expecting Departing and Will Take Charge to go first. Revolutionary will trail the field.
The Choice: Mylute. His race 2 back and a couple last year are good enough to win this. Had rough trip in last race, running wide and into a hot pace at the wrong time. Fast quality works since last race and has been pointed for this race for quite a while. Odds will be right and like the expected pace of this race. Mylute and Departing will be A’s on my tickets.