Florence Kentucky the site of this weeks 50 point Kentucky Derby prep race. A classy field of turf and synthetic specialists have gathered for one crack at Derby glory.
Tamarando has been pointing for this race since winning the El Camino Real Stakes in February on the Tapeta at Golden Gate. This is the likely race favorite and lots to like. His 4/7 record on All Weather surfaces and all 4 of his lifetime wins have occurred on AW surface. His last 2 losses were to Shared Belief and California Chrome who were both on multiple win streaks at the time. Deep closer needs a strong pace to fire his best shot. Still shipping to the midwest and being pace dependent is a lot to ask and not willing to take to short a price. Recent 7 furlong workout says he is fit. Likely favorite, I’m leaning elsewhere for the win.
Almost Famous has had a tough luck campaign as a 3-year-old. His first start he was forced into a pace duel with multiple horses in the Holy Bull. This was after a layoff and they were trying to teach him to ration his speed on the front end. The fractions were not fast in that race, but the race was contested. The Fountain of Youth was over when he slipped at the start and was forced to the back of the pack. With the speed holding well that day, he was out of his element and basically ran around the track never firing his race. He comes in fresh, relatively fit and definitely with a class drop. His ideal race puts him on the lead, or sitting comfortably in 2nd. Faces some speed in here but the field could get spread out and more single file. Price will be right, but pace could get contentious again.
Coastline is another who drops in class. His recent workout on the All Weather surface should have him tight for this race. His best running style is on the lead and will have to battle Solitary Ranger and Almost Famous for that lead in this race. The sire is Speighstown who is a good AW sire and Coastline does have some talent to jump up and run a good one. Best race was at Churchill Downs when pressing the pace and taking it to the opposition. Speed is his weapon and I expect him to be forwardly placed, if not on the lead, then right behind Solitary Ranger. Down the road still some potential to be a Grade II horse and fits in races up to 8.5 furlongs. Fractions will be key for this guy.
Solitary Ranger has proved his mettle on the All Weather surfaces. The pace fractions in the Battaglia were very strong and he shrugged off 3 other challengers and went on to the facile victory. This speedy son of US Ranger brings the Danzig influence to the synthetic and he has responded with 2 stakes ins and 2 placings in 5 starts on AW. His Arlington Washington Futurity win showed he can chase the speed and still make a winning move on the turn. Does not need the lead to win and this is the 3rd race of his form cycle this spring which has been very powerful in all of the spring preps. The class is strong as he faced Pablo Del Monte and No Nay Never in maiden races before cashing in on first career victory. Solid trainer and Jockey combo says all systems go.
Harry’s Holiday faced to 3rd place in the swiftly run Battaglia Stakes. He did so from the outside post and ran a credible race while racing wide the entire way and on the pace. Pedigree is tilted more towards speed with Orientate on the female side. Enters with good form, but the new horses add more pace fuel and the class level of the Spiral Stakes takes a step up in class. He will have run from further back and face a full field in this race.
We Miss Artie goes back to All Weather which wis the surface on which he registered his biggest career victory last October at Keeneland. His Fountain of Youth Race was an above average effort. He broke well and stayed on the inside made a nice move to enter contention and then flattened out late on a hot day. Moving to the cool weather and back to the AW surface should result in an improved effort. Running style is a good fit for the this field. Should be able to sit 5th place and settle off the speed and should get first jump on Tamarando. Class is solid with 2 Grade 1, races and 2 Grade 2 races and also broke his maiden at Saratoga. Expecting a big effort and top 3 finish for the son of Artie Schiller.
Asserting Bear goes back to his preferred surface. His race at Tampa Bay was solid and recent works show that he could be sitting on a big effort at Turfway. Made a mid-race move while running wide in the Sam F Davis. Was in the middle of the pace battle down the stretch and lost by just a few lengths. Solid juvenile foundations with 6 races, including 3 stakes races.
Big Bazinga rebounded with a huge race on the turf in last race after a pair of moderate dirt efforts. Stakes form of 2-year-old season was highlighted by close loss in G3 Grey Stakes. Pedigree is bred for routing with Bluegrass Cat and Maria’s Mont. Best races are when he makes a run from behind. Turf race in last start was an improved effort and I expect a strong run from behind and may be able to out-close Tamarando if he gets the right trip. His top race makes him competitive, but does throw in some clunkers. Capable of top 3 finish.
Smart Cover used the Palm Beach Stakes as a prep for the Spiral. Back class shows a runner-up finish in the Grade 3 stakes race at Churchill Downs. Distance should not be an issue for Any Given Saturday son out of Smart Strike mare. Big question is did he get enough out of the Palm Beach to have him fit for this race. He stumbled at the start in the last race and basically jogged around the track. Moves to the cool weather and running style is that of a closer. Should be plenty of speed in this race to set up his run. His ultimate running style may be that of a grinder and not sure if he has the “sprint” speed to outclose Big Bazinga and Tamarando. Talented but may be a race behind some of these in terms of development.
Poker Player was a late edition to the field and his closing kick adds some intrigue to the race at a possible price. Originally the plan was to wait for the Bluegrass Stakes, but with several speed horses lined up in this field the 9 furlongs of the Spiral could be just what Poker Player needs to bust through with a big effort. In his last race he was 18 lengths behind before rallying to a non-threatening 2nd place finish. He did finish with gusto that day and his pedigree should set him up for a good effort at the Sprial Distance. Turf races have been solid and lone main track appearance was a win closing with a rush in the Bourbon Stakes on All Weather that was taken off the turf. Has faced two 13 horse fields and an 11 horse field so should be used to the kickback that often becomes an issue for some horses at Turfway Park. Running style and class fit the conditions. Playable in the exotic bets.
All Tied Up took four starts to break his maiden but the development should do him wonders as he faces multiple winners over the All Weather surface. His last race he ran from the back of the pack to just miss in a race at 7 and half furlongs. The pace was wicked fast in that race. String of races and works has him plenty fit. Chance to upset at a nice price if he lays back and makes one big run.
Pace: The pace should be contentious and possibly fast. Solitary Ranger and Coastline are most likely to engage for the early lead and I expect Coastline to make the first move. We Miss Artie drafts in the garden spot with Asserting Bear. Big Bazinga, Poker Player and Tamarando are the closers.
The Choice: Tamarando is tough to take at low odds on a new synthetic surface with lots of kick-back. In a race like this in a full field, the favorites winning percentage is lower than average. Candice Hare @chare889 tells me never play a favorite in a full field, on a new surface! I’m going with Big Bazinga who closed into a fast pace last race and goes back to All Weather surface. We Miss Artie is another grinder who looks good in this spot.