A large field has gathered for the Southwest Stakes for 3 year olds in Arkansas. The Grade 3, $300,000 race is the second prep in the local series followed by the Grade 2, $600,000 Rebel on March 15 and the Grade 1, Arkansas Derby.
Strong Mandate is the “class” of the field with a G1 stakes win and G1 3rd place effort as a juvenile. Pedigree is solid and he is bred to develop later with stamina on the male side and a classy Grade 1 winner as his dam. Showed speed in 2nd lifetime start and has been working since late December over the Oaklawn surface. Will be supported heavily at the windows and this is the first of a three race campaign to get him ready for Louisville.
Tapiture is another who circled the Southwest Stakes early on his racing calendar and has been pointed to this race for well over a month. Recent works have picked up speed and several distance works should have him ready to run a solid race. This horse had a mixture of running styles before breaking his maiden in a stakes race at Churchill Downs. He pressed the pace in 3rd lifetime start and stalked the pace in his winning Jockey Club Stakes effort. Ideally they would like to position themselves in the front half the field and see if he can make a move going into the turn. Does not have to win this race, but a top 4 finish would give reason for optimism moving forward.
Coastline disappointed as the favorite in the Smarty Jones. Arriving late to Oaklawn on the Saturday before his last race, he looked tired going into the turn and ran 3rd all the way around the track on a speed bias. Sharp works since that race and I expect a much better effort in the Southwest Stakes. Has won setting the pace and pressing the pace. Has a smooth stride and will probably run his best on the paces running even fractions. With five lifetime races he may not have much improvement in him but is capable of getting back to the Street Sense effort. One post should ensure a good trip and may be able to sit just off the speed.
Ride on Curlin prepped with an allowance victory that was better than looked racing wide and from just off the pace he defeated a field that he towered over speed figure wise and class wise. The track was very slow that day so the speed figure is on the low side. The pride of Ellis Park earned a sharp speed number last summer with a maiden romp. His Champagne effort against Honor Code and Havana was a solid effort. Curlins have been doing well lately and may be late developing. Overall talent level fits this group horses and with the focus on a couple others, it’s possible “The Pride of Ellis” may get shuffled to 5/1 on the tote board.
Paganol closed with a rush in key maiden race at Oaklawn in early January. He defeated Street Strategy who came back to win a maiden race by 7 lengths. This is a race-running pedigree. Sire Tiz Wonderful was lightly raced and has a stamina pedigree in Tiznow even though he developed quickly and has produced many horses who win at first asking. On the mare side, he inherits some speed from the speedy Artax who won the Breeders Cup Sprint. Early in his career Artax defeated Real Quiet early in the prep season. Pedigree says develop early and Paganol could be won ready to improve off his debut effort which was visually impressive, his speed rating was on the slow side due to a slow surface. Should stretch out, and will be closing in the lane. Has a chance to pick up the pieces if pace is contentious.
Louie’s Flower has been rested since winning the Hat Trick in the Springboard Mile. His 3rd straight win was impressive as he outlasted a solid group of 3 year olds and figures to improve a little with the Flower Alley breeding. His female pedigree says more speed. Back to Back wins since stretching out to two-turns. The Southwest still be a longer distance and more pace pressure. Trainer Brett Calhoun does well at the Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park in the spring so is one of the local connections who has pointed for this race since the end of December. Solid work pattern and seems to be improving. Could have room for further development and may not be a need the lead type. His natural speed carried him to victories in the last three races.
Kendall’s Boy is a quality speed horse who has progressed with each start. He started his career chasing Havana at Saratoga. Havana was 3/5 on the board that day and wasn’t going to get beat. His loss at Keeneland has nothing to do with distance. It was a driving rainstorm and synthetic surface was a gooey mess that day. Thats a toss race. Speed numbers are competitive with this group and his gas should fuel for the fire fora closer.
Tanzanite Cat won the Smarty Jones pressing the pace and taking the lead from a pace-setting Walt as they entered the stretch. The Smarty Jones card was dominated by speed on that Holiday Monday and the speed bias was noticeably more present in the latter races. Looks better on paper and faces a classier bunch of horses in this race and the pace pressure will hotter from the half mile pole. His best race is competitive, but pace and field size may work against his style in this race.
Fire Starter disappointed as a bet-down horse in the Smarty Jones. Had issues down the back-side and has shown the tendency like a lot of Tapits to cause his own trouble and lack focus in races. Galloped out with a flurry in the Smarty Jones and had no shot that day based on the track profile which was favoring speed. Tough to see him winning, but probably better than his last race.
Bourbonize comes in with back to back wins. His debut win was visually impressive, coming from off the pace at 17/1 to win by 2 lengths. That day he stalked the pace and won at the demanding distance of 7 furlongs in his first lifetime start. His allowance win at Oaklawn Park was a dominating victory again stalking the pace and then drawing off to victory on a slow track with lots of rain. Listed as sloppy the track was pretty much a lake that day. Same sire as Paganol – Tiz Wonderful has been throwing some classy, win early types. Kellyn Gorder is a solid midwest trainer who has had success with listed and G3 stakes types over the years. Expecting a big effort from this son of Tiz Wonderful who was purchased for 40K at the Fasig Tipton July 2012 sale. The 12 post is not an ideal post, but gets 6 speed horses to battle for the pace should soften them up for a late run.
The Pace:
Expect Tanzanite Cat, Kendalls Boy, and Coastline to jockey for position early with Tapiture and Strong Mandate sitting in the 2nd flight of horses. If Strong Mandate goes to the lead off the layoff that would not be a good sign for his chances this spring to ration his speed. Coastline and Tanzanite are both capable of opening up on the field by a couple of lengths and could get very brave with a big lead. Tapiture and Bourbonize are both capable of being in the top half of the field. Paganol should also benefit from a fast pace.
The Choice:
I’m expecting a strong race from Bourbonize. Visually he looks like a router, has had a trip over the track and figures to be a solid price with a win-early pedigree and recent works, he seems to be in condition and I expect a strong effort and also expect Coastline to rebound with a better trip this time, running closer to the lead and using his speed more as a weapon. Leaning closers in this race with Bourbonize, Paganol and possibly from off the pace Tapiture.