A Monday afternoon at Oaklawn Park for the Smarty Jones Stakes. This is a 10-4-2-1 points race on the road to Kentucky. A field of moderate contenders for this race with a heavy favorite in Mr. Z.
The Skinny:
Far Right made an off the pace move in the Delta Jackpot and then was blocked approaching the turn. Flattened out late that day. Overall looks a little slow for this group.
Paid Admission son of Candy Ride picked up a 5 length win the last race on the class drop, goes back up in class and fair odds in this race are probably over 20/1.
Mr Z comes in as the 4/5 favorite and will be hammered in all pools at the windows. Close out 2014 with strong races in the Delta Jackpot and Los Al Futurity. He has a 1 for 8 record with 4 seconds. Gets a new jockey and not really sure what his running style is. He can show speed but not sure I want even money on a horse who may be over the top. The class of the race and approaching millionaire status, but still looking for his 2nd lifetime win.
American Sailor drew away at Delta on the class drop and ran evenly at Remington park against Bayerd. Started his career at Old Delmar. Stretches out in distance and has a speedy distance pedigree.
Hebbronville disappointed in the Nashua despite getting bet at the windows, also was bet hard in the Futurity . Has a sprint pedigree but may be an underlay at the windows and has shown no indication he wants park of this distance.
Lucky Player regressed in the Breeders Futurity but that was a monster effort by Carpe Diem that day and not sure how hard they were trying down the stretch. Has a good race at Prairie Meadows and shows recent works. Looks like a player in this spot. Has tactical speed and my choice.
Bayerd took advantage of a speedy surface on a rainy day in the last race, outlasting Shotgun Kowboy winning by a short head. Has been competitive in all his races and has 3 wins in 5 races. Should run well, not sure he is the winner.
Private Prospect chased the fast pace in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Started off his career with 4 consistent efforts and figures to be ready to fire off the bench for Chicago connections. His best races put him in the mix.
Runaway Bling comes off back to back poor efforts losing by 19 and 26 lengths. Texas bred needs to improve to compete with the top class horses in this race.
Fair Odds
Mr. Z 8/5
Private Prospect 4/1
Lucky Player 5/1
The Choice:
Mr. Z is very logical on the class drop, but has been running steady for quite some time and not sure his actually getting any better. His last 3 races have been in a holding pattern. I’m taking a shot with Lucky Player and Private Prospect – if they are both 4/1 or higher – I’m betting both and using both in doubles.