The Smarty Jones Stakes kicks off the Triple Crown Trail in Arkansas. Oaklawn Park has designed a series of 3 year-old preps for horses of all levels and distances and usually a few shippers from the west coast spice up the fields in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby.
Coastline enters off a disappointing effort in the Delta Jackpot when he lost all shot when stumbling badly at the start, this wasn’t a minor stumble he was left flat footed and spotted the field a couple of lengths on a bull ring and 10 horse field, by the time he made his mid race move Rise Up has opened up a 3 length lead by the half mile pole uncontested and Coastline had to made a sustained wide bid to get within 2 lengths, after that the jockey eased up in the stretch and let him gallop out the length of the stretch which was a wise decision. Coastline impressed visually defeating a solid field at Keeneland in 2nd lifetime start at 7 furlongs. Speightstown is the sire of Coastline and was a top notch sprinter who developed as an older sprinter. The female family (Culinary) by El Amante is a racing family with Culinary a precocious talent who developed early as well. Coastline is a flashy looking gray who has a juvenile bottom, may not pan out as classic stakes horse, but fits well in most pace scenarios and seems to have some sturdiness and I expect him to win a lot of money if placed in the right spots.
D’Cajun Cat has a pedigree tilted towards speed D’wildcat was a noted sprinted and his highest class of racing was in traditional dirt sprints like the De Francis Memorial Dash and Triple Bend Invitational, he did run 3rd in the San Vincente as a 3 year old. The female side does offer some stamina (Rabiadella) out of Dynaformer, but his running style suggests sprinter only, his last race was against Albano, but his stride shortened quickly down the stretch.
Fire Starter annexed a Maiden field at Laurel Park in his last start he is one of many son’s of Tapit on this year’s trail. The maiden victory was his 4th lifetime start and many horses make “the jump” in 3rd or 4th lifetime start. He may not have much room to improve since Tapit’s develop quickly. His loss to Purple Sky in September looked like a good race at the time, but Purple Sky has come back and looked average. Steve Hobby does well at Oaklawn Park and has a high in-the-money percentage in allowance and stakes races, placing horses in the right spot. The owners of this horse point many of their better horses for the Oaklawn meet.
Whyruawesome no surprise that this gelding by Whywhywhy won at first asking on the poly at Arlington Park, with the turf and win early pedigree this one made his debut a winning won coming from off the pace and winning by 1/2 length. Has shown a stretch kick 3 of his 5 races and passed horses in the stretch in 3 of 5 races. His 2nd place finish to Solitary Ranger was a nice effort as he pressed the pace that day, setting moderate fractions, but came home slow, so the race shape was average early and slow late. His best chance is to hope for a speed duel and then make his run entering the turn.
Son of a Preacher ran into the talented Gold Hawk in his last race, setting moderate to slow pace and then getting outrun at the Fairgrounds. Son of a Preacher should benefit from a couple of things, drops back 70 yards in distance and the stretch of Oaklawn Park is 100 feet shorter than the fairgrounds. The win on October 27th was probably the best “Maiden” win in this field and has raced once in October, November and December indicating no physical issues and may still have a little “speed” figure jump in him.
Tanzanite Cat captured an off the turf Maiden field in last race, the speed figure came back big, but the race was 5 and a half furlongs with a field that was bred for the turf. Has shown speed in both his races and should add some fuel to the pace.
Unstoppable Colby is a maiden by class level and lost in his last race to Gold Hawk while pressing the pace at 7 furlongs and getting collared late, Unstoppable Colby raced 3-4 wide in his last race, he broke well and has involved in a contentious pace battle for the lead for the first 1/2 mile going 7 furlongs. A lot of horses stop at the top of stretch after being pressed early. Colby galloped out strong against Gold Hawk and should benefit from racing in 12 and 11 horse fields the last two races. This will be his 3rd racetrack in 4th lifetime start.
Walt dominated in back to back wins at Remington Park, with the rise in class in the Springboard Mile and was taken back off the pace and ran evenly through the 2nd half of the race. This pedigree says speed by Run Away and Hide (Miracle Mile) out of Silvery Deputy. With speed to press the pace and running style that wants to be close to lead, Walt may ensure a contentious pace at the half mile pole, if he kicks on, he could be tough, but should have enough to engage the leaders and make sure they falter.
Pace
Many one mile races are won going into the 2nd turn at Oaklawn Park, speedy insiders try to open up the lead if drawn inside. If the pace is contentious, sweeping wide moves into the turn, with the closer inhaling the leaders and drawing off to victory with the short stretch of the one mile races, positional speed is important. Coastline’s best races have been on the lead, and has an advantage in pace figures, look for him to sit 2nd or 3rd on Monday. Tanzanite Cat figures to be speed of speed pressed by D’cajun Cat, Walt has won both his races with front running efforts. I expect a contentious pace, maybe not fast but contentious which should favor off the pace and closers.
Selection
Despite only 8 horses this has some long term potential, Unstoppably Colby, Son of a Preacher and Coastline all could show 9 furlong ability. Coastline had no chance in last race at Delta Downs, he was left flat-footed at the gate and then made a nice move while running wide on a bull-ring while the leader was running a corker on the front end. Coastline is the class, and may get a chance to try and rate in this race with some speed. Son of a Preacher is my 2nd choice.