The Sham stakes has been designated a Kentucky Derby qualifying points race by Churchill Downs with 10 points to the winner and 4 points to the runner-up it . With the one mile distance it gives horses who may have started late a chance to jump up in class and see how they fit into the West Coast 3 Year old scene. Last year Goldencents confirmed his talent in the Sham and went on to a successful 2013 campaign running in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before winning the Breeders Cup Mile in November.
Kristo dominated a MSW race at Santa Anita on a speed favoring surface, the expensive son of Distorted Humor was purchased for 500,000 at the Keeneland September sales 2012. Distorted Humor has already sired 3 major classic winners in Funny Cide- Kentucky Derby, Drosselmeyer – Belmont Stakes and Breeders Cup Classic and Flower Alley – Travers Stakes. Kristo dominated his Maiden race in his last outing controlling the pace and drew away to a 6 length win. The field in that maiden group was on the soft side and the Kristo did receive the added beneficiary of running on an extreme speed biased track. The plan was to freshen Kristo for a 3 YO campaign. Kristo has a promising development patters, showing speed at old Delmar on the poly and dominating a MSW race, a string of works including a 6F on Monday should have him sharp for first race off the mini-layoff. Kristo has been favored in all 3 of his starts going off at 60 cents on the dollar in three straight races, figures to be heavily favored again the in Sham. This race will go a long way in determining if Kristo is a “miler” or if he has the ability to stay on the classic route.
Midnight Hawk enters the Sham as the “now” horse. Impressive debut on December 13th stamped him on many Derby watchers short lists. The son of Midnight Lute dominated a 6 horse field with Mike Smith in career debut, earning a flashy speed figure and drew off impressively at 7 and a half furlongs. Midnight Lute has only one crop to race so limited data on “classic” runners, so far has produced some talented speed horses from his first crop. Midnight Lucky, Shakin It Up, Governor Charlie and Holy Lute all developed early in their careers. Black Bear another winner was limited to sprints most of his 3-year-old campaign. Speed figure is competitive in this group and seems to have the right running style. Lots of upside and may be dangerous off the maiden score. With a hot pace Midnight Hawk would seem to benefit the most.
Top Fortitude raced away from an impressive maiden group in career debut. This Arizona bred full brother to multiple stakes winner Uh Oh Bango earned an impressive speed figure in big win. Freshened and with a strong workout pattern since the November, Top Fortitude is owned by Triple AAA ranch who normally race at Turf Paradise but have spotted their horses well in Northern California and Santa Anita. Kayla Stra returns in the saddle who had a top effort while racing 3 wide and waiting patiently for the speed to tire. This horse was bet down in debut and expect to him to be low price again, although the 3rd favorite of the big 3 horses. The price will be right and is my 2nd choice. Lots of reasons to like.
The Pace:
Kristo has run near the pace in all 3 of his races, his last race he was “sent” to the lead in small field and with speed bias was not going to lose. Midnight Hawk was able to rate in first race and was already making his move when the field fell apart going into the turn. Top Fortitude could press the pace in the Sham, and may go to the lead, his natural speed may take him to the lead, if able to slow down the fractions could stretch out.
The Selection:
Midnight Hawk is the selection based on possible speed duel up front with Top Fortitude and the fact that Kristo has been 3/5 in all three starts. Top Fortitude is the 2nd choice with a big chance to win.