A small field that looks a little light on the class test has gathered for the Santa Anita Oaks this year which is being run on the same day as the Santa Anita Derby. A welcome change and better timing for a run at the Lillies.
Arethusa has the pedigree and running style to relish Churchill Downs, but will need some help on the pace end to have any kind of chance at Santa Anita. Small fields favor the speed and pressers and her running style is clearly that of a horse who prefers to do her running down the lane. Tough to back on win end, unless the speed completely backs up. Could benefit from a surface switch.
Fashion Plate has been idle since winning last out as the lone speed and taking advantage of an aggressive ride. Gary Stevens willed her to victory in that race and it was a strong performance first time while stretching out. Has speed to control the pace and strong recent work-outs. Final quarter of last race was slow, clocking in at over 26 seconds. Last race is not true indication of true talent. She will probably top that race and run a career best on Saturday. Doesn’t need the lead to win, but seems to be a free-wheeling type.
Ria Antonia has been on the “program” now for over a month with the trainer change and has been posting, long, fast workouts out West. Two views on last race at Fairgrounds, did she “flop” or was she outrun by an “unbeatable” Untapable that day? Best race was at Santa Anita last fall in Breeders Cup and running style sits close to pace and in pocket for best effort. Likely favorite but no excuses – needs to defeat this field with authority to garner some Kentucky Oaks love. Lots of questions to take a low price.
Honey Ride adds some intrigue with the last race maiden win in 3rd lifetime start. Candy Ride is having quite a crop of 3 – year olds. Last race is a tough race to figure out. A speedball got clear in that race and completely collapse, making it look like Honey Ride close a little from the off the pace. In reality she probably inherited a maiden victory. Capable of improving and will have to do that to be in the winners circle.
Artemis has the pedigree and is slowly starting to put it together in recent starts. Las Virgenes effort was an aggressive move off the maiden win, but came back with a solid stakes effort last out. Pedigree say distance is not an issue. Speed figures are competitive, may be developing late may be forced to show speed to stay close to the pace and then may not be able to close late. Capable of winning, but prefer others.
The Pace
Expect Fashion Plate to set the pace with moderate fractions. Honey Ride is capable of engaging going into the turn along with Ria Antonio. Arethusa is up against it with anticipated moderate fractions and possibly uncontested pace.
The Choice:
Lots of question marks on Ria Antonia but Fashion Plate came home to slow in last race, Arethusa is pace dependent. Ria Antonia the choice with Fashion Plate the 2nd most logical.