The Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red returns in a sprint race and the talent signed on should post a good test for one of the early Kentucky Derby 2015 favorites.
The Skinny:
Lord Nelson has an excuse in the last race when he broke slow, raced wide and flattened out late. Has won a stakes race sprinting and 7 furlongs should be a good distance. Pulpit’s tend to develop early and expecting a big effort in this spot. Like the fact he has been working with Dortmund in the mornings.
Serbian Syclone is the speed of the speed winning by open lengths in the last 2 lengths and has the speed and grit to take these horses a long way. Speed of the race should be sitting on a big effort.
Jazzy Josh races for the first time on “dirt” seems a little outclassed and not sure what his running style is going to be in a race like this.
Texas Red may be vulnerable in this spot. They have already announced that his second race will be the Risen Star on Feb. 21, so that is 3 weeks away. With that in mind, they may take this off the pace horses and “tighten” the speed and run him through the lane. Has the class, and fits with these, but BC Juvenile was perfect storm of conditions. Respect but not a sure thing in this spot.
Punctuate impressed in debut as this well-bred son of the Undefeated Pepper’s Pride closed in a field of 13. A few horses have won out of that race. Has missed some training time. Not sure what his running style is but should be solid at this distance.
Magic Taste seems a little over-matched in this spot. Still a maiden and I expect him to be scratched.
Bench Warrant has some class to him and sprinting is his game. Can come off the pace and is a little on the slow slide but not out of the realm of possibility in this spot.
Sir Samson picked up a nice win in last race in small field. Chased Dortmund in debut race after setting fast fractions and being pressed into a hot pace. Hard to imagine him surviving the pace duel.
Fair Odds:
Texas Red 4/1
Punctuate 5/1
Lord Nelson 6/1
Bench Warrant 10/1
The Choice:
Lord Nelson seems like a horse who is going to be a good miler and this spot has enough speed to set up his closing punch he is the choice and odds should be the right price. Bench Warrant and Punctuate are playable in Daily Doubles.