The Championship series continues on Big Cap with the San Felipe stakes. The top guns from the west have entered with fresh faces like Danzing Candy providing depth.
San Felipe field 2016
Uncle Lino drew the rail with speed to his outside. May be forced to send from the rail and has been fast in-game in all 4 of his efforts. Likes a good fight, preferred running style is to target the leader, capable of running but not sure he has the raw speed to wire the field.
Danzing Candy dominated an allowance race in most recent race. Went wire to wire in that victory and is fast, fit and fresh. Moves up in class but visually has looked like a router and his best race may be coming off the pace. Mike Smith has ridden him in both victories. Recent works have been solid. Overall pedigree says speed, but recent works indicate fitness and seems to have a big lung capacity and motor.
Mor Spirit has won 3 of 5 races. Only defeat was in the slop at Churchill Downs. Airoforce ran outside him in that race and he likes to work on the outside in the morning gallops. Runs with his head low and has the speed to get in position. Should have horses with speed in front of him to run at. Key decision will be when he makes his move does he get an outside trip or trapped at the rail.
Cupid enters off a maiden special weight race win and improved in 3rd lifetime start. Overall he is slower than the top contenders but may improve with experience. Running style will be coming from off the pace and making one run. On paper is slower than the main contenders but the race flow may dictate the closers having an edge. Intriguing and 12/1 fair price.
I will Score is a talented fast racehorse who lost to Mor Spirt and Uncle Lino in the Robert Lewis. Long string of works and several distance works. This is his 2nd race off the layoff and 2nd stretch-out race and has grit from his hard-fought allowance win. Will be overlooked in the wagering and is very usable in exacta and trifecta tickets. Still improving don’t overlook. Fair Value 7/1
Smokey Image is undefeated but untested and moves up in class. Has overcome adversity in a couple of his starts. Has the speed to be on the lead, but not sure he can run at this class level with a very inefficient stride. Runs very front-heavy and high leg action is not the most optimum. Class yet to be tested. Will be over-bet based on undefeated record 6/1 is fair odds most likely to be lower than that.
Exaggerator has run fast and has some class races to back up his form. Strong race at Keeneland last fall and impressive maiden win at Old Delmar. Grit, heart and determination. Have a feeling he will do better in large field and coming off the pace and making one big run. Had a fast workout last week and finished full of run.
The Choice:
Several of these horses are natural pressers and pace could be the key. I expect a slower pace and Uncle Lino to set the pace from the rail. I Will Score will run a strong race and expecting Danzing Candy to make a mid race move. Exaggerator is the key and draws well outside. I’m picking Exaggerator to win but demand 7/2 odds on the tote. Back-up tickets with Danzing Candy and I Will Score may be better than most think.