The San Felipe traditionally brings out the best West Coast horses and this year is no exception. Some new blood mixes in with some old favorites with the winner getting 50 Derby points. This field is tougher and larger than both the Sham and Robert B. Lewis. Potentially three horses could emerge from this race to challenge Candy Boy in the Santa Anita Derby.
Home Run Kitten takes his second stab at the main track. His Lewis effort was hard to judge because the lack of pace in that race negated any possible stretch run he may have had. This time of the year they don’t card turf stakes races for large money so your only option is to try dirt or sit in the barn for 6 months. Pedigree has some dirt on the female side. But overall talent level is probably not a Grade 2 stakes winner on the dirt. New jock – Alonso Quinonez rides.
Kristo was last seen losing to Midnight Hawk in the Sham Stakes. The Sham Stakes was basically a match race in which Midnight Hawk and Kristo changed leads a couple of times. The pace of that race did not fit Kristo, who was coming off a maiden win and probably wanted to rate a little behind the speed. Son of Distorted Humor has nice even stride and breaks quickly from the gate allowing him to establish position early. Recent works have been right on cue. A six furlong move in 1:10 and change last week indicates fitness and speed. Key to this race will be to try to get outside Bayern when he is ready to make his run. Post Position draw helped him as he drew outside of Bayern. His 6 furlong move is as fast as anyone and ideally he wants to go for the lead with one quick swoop, not get involved in a long drive with Midnight Hawk or Bayern. I expect a big race Saturday. If this guy can rate and put a mid-race move, it opens up big possibilities for the rest of the year. Joel Rosario travels in to ride for the first time.
Midnight Hawk has been rank in all three of his races. This means he is using valuable energy to go to the lead. In his debut race he broke slow and was allowed to come at the field with a big run when he overmatched rivals. The victory over Kristo was workman like. The Sham may have hindered his development because he was forced into a match race and had to show speed to be near the lead. In his last race he rated 3 wide on an even trip. Last race he was content to let his stable-mate show speed. His trip was not hectic, but he did cover some extra ground. Reading several PR updates indicate they may send on Saturday for the lead. This race is tougher than the last two and he will have to step up his game to compete with the big boys. Speed is always dangerous and only 3 lifetime races indicates a small jump still possible. “The Other Baffert”. The pedigree is light on the mare side and says speed on the sire side.
Bayern could be the “new shooter” that everyone has been waiting for this spring. Did not start as a Juvenile but was added to many a “stable mail” after sharp victory in debut, when he rated just off the pace and scored a 2-length victory. Last race speed figure was the “perfect storm” small field, main rivals broke slow out of the gate, this allowed Bayern to establish an unchallenged early lead and slowing down the fractions at the half mile pole. Visually both starts have looked sharp. Shiny coat, deep muscle and long fluid stride. This horse must look good, because he is by a $4,000 sire and they paid 320K at auction for this guy. Thunder Gulch adds some stamina and soundness on the female side of the family. Should be fit – has been working since last November, with several of those works being 6 furlongs. Has been bet hard at the windows in both starts. Debuting at 4/5 odds and last race 3/5. Likely favorite on Saturday may try a new dimension – if stable mate Midnight Hawk is sent that could be to see if this guy wants to come off the pace. Probable favorite, capable of winning but no “single”.
Unstoppable Colby traveled with Will Take Charge to Santa Anita. With modern horses there’s a limit to how many starts you are going to get out of them. Running in the Southwest was worth the shot. Maiden win in last race was gutsy effort when winning by a neck with some grit down the lane. Traveling out West and face 8 or 9 horses at a longer distance coming off the maiden score seems slightly aggressive. Needs to improve – his last effort is not fast enough to compete. Pedigree has some big names in Pulpit as the sire and Storm Cat as the Broodmare Sire.
SchoolofhardRocks has been on my radar for quite a while. I wrote about him on December 8th. Pedigree says distance will not be an issue and this is a 3rd generation homebred for Amerman Racing. His debut at Delmar was quick and decisive. His race looks like a deep close in debut, but he made his move going into the turn eating up ground like Dave Winfield used to run from 1st to 3rd for the Padres. Espinoza wrapped up on him immediately after taking the lead. Smokin Joe Talamo gets the mount on Saturday. Gallop out was strong in Delmar race. People may not remember he was entered in the Frontrunner stakes and was scratched morning of the race. Works have been solid and steady every 7 days for 6 weeks. His last two works have been fast and all signs point to a big race on Saturday. Lots of questions to be answered. Running style last year indicates an off the pace move, but he has been working strong for debut and trainer is known for getting them ready off the bench. Not all horses start their Sophomore season in March – but most of the really good 3 – YO’s have. Saturday may be a tightener for the Santa Anita Derby.
California Chrome goes into the deep waters to get a class test. Sink or Swim this Saturday. Last two races have seen a big improvement in speed figures. Visually has given the field the Killer Crossover going into the turn in both races and won as much the best. But could get the “Baffert” sandwich this Saturday. Chasing Midnight Hawk and getting hounded by Bayer and Kristo after 4 furlongs and then it could get Rocky late! Lots of great reports on his workouts the last couple of weeks and the pictures show a shiny coat and happy horse. Breeding is a little suspect with Lucky Pulpit as the sire. Needs to stretch his speed out and hope that others don’t improve off their prior efforts. Respect his last two races, deserves to face these type of horses and I may be over-estimating a few other horses in here, but they all can’t win. The Los Alamitos Flash needs to step up. Espinoza stays on California Chrome.
RPrettyboyfloyd is diving into deep waters. Has hooked some promising runners in maiden races and last race met a Tiger in Kobe’s Back. Stretches out while still a maiden and running style indicates the distance may not be too much. Hard to project a win and will be interesting to see if he runs or scratches day of the race. Can’t argue with the ROI. Purchased for 16K at Keeneland September and has already made 46K, hopefully he can get a win soon.
Sawyer’s Hill is a little out of his element. Still a maiden after two races and stretches out. His last race was against Chelios and his first race was against Karma King. Horse has some talent and has been bet hard in both races. It’s hard to find a reason why he can win, but he is not a total toss either. The odds are against it. His last race was very impressive he chased a fast pace for both calls and weakened late off the layoff. Two 1 mile workouts have him ready to fire. He is sitting on a big win in MSW race. Not out of the mix completely his last race was above average pace wise and I think on the turn he will be in the race. This race could disguise some hidden form for next time.
Recanted has a nice pedigree with distance influence Empire Maker as the sire and Pulpit as the Broodmare sire. His true level of ability is hard to figure he finished 3rd in a 4 horse field in October, but he did run 10 furlongs as a juvenile and carried 125 pounds in that race. If you can look at these PP’s and see a winner, then your seeing something I’m not.
The Pace:
Look for Midnight Hawk to establish the early lead which leaves Kristo in a tough spot again, trying to establish a good position against Bayern. Stevens likes to trap horses inside and Kristo runs best in the center of the track. Bayern has push button speed and may settle a few lengths off the pace. An aggressive ride by California Chrome should ensure a solid pace. SchoolofhardRocks will fire going into the turn
The Choice:
Bayern will be the favorite. Midnight Hawk with the popular sports connections will take a lot of money and California Chrome seems to have a large fan club. Kristo and Schoolofhardrocks are up against it odds wise. Bayern is a tough horse to throw out and deserving favorite. I’m picking Kristo. Bayern and Schoolofhardrocks offer legitimate threats to win.