A moderate field of 7 has gathered for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita a traditional prep for the San Felipe run at the two turn distance of 8.5 furlongs.
Cool Samurai has been working a whole in the wind since his maiden score at Santa Anita. The maiden victory was impressive, coming from several lengths behind and just passing the speed horses at the finish line, although “Cool” did benefit from the speed duel that day, his quick acceleration on the backstretch was accomplished before the speed faded. Running wide on the turn and into the stretch and stretching out powerfully at the wire and through the gallop out, hints at distance potential. Cool Samurai has worked out twice at 7 furlongs in recent weeks, indicating they are getting him ready by long distance works. Really think he is a player in the San Felip and Santa Anita Derby. Needs a larger field to really strut his stuff, but price may be 6/1 in this race.
Midnight Hawk is the current leader of the West Coast division with Shared Belief on the sidelines. Midnight Hawk defeated Kristo in his last start in the Sham Stakes in a race that was tough to judge. The 4-horse Sham evolved into a “Match” race with Midnight Hawk showing speed from the gate and pinning Kristo on the rail, they ran fast early and slow late, the final quarter in over :26 seconds and Midnight Hawk weaving in the stretch. The fast pace after his first race come from behind win may set Midnight Hawk for a classic jump up in this race and the horse seems versatile. As a heavy favorite because of the owner connections, this is the type of horse I like to bet against.
Candy Boy made a menacing run for the early lead down the backstretch in the CashCall Futurity, the run was long and sustained before getting passed and overtaken late by Shared Belief. The ride by Gary Stevens that day was aggressive and his size and scope indicate he may be a natural distance horse. This son of Candy Ride had been nibbling in some Maiden races before putting it all together and dominating a Maiden Special Weight race before his Stakes Debut. Versatile running style could allow him to sit much closer to the pace if the pace is slow to develop. Has a solid 2 year old foundation and could be sitting on the first race of a 2 race campaign to get to Kentucky. Has never run a bad race and has speed figures that make him competitive off the bench.
Chitu was a surprise entrant as he was being mentioned for the past couple of weeks as a Southwest possible starter. The decision to enter in the Robert Lewis was possibly a wise decision. The Southwest currently has about 12 or 13 horses pointing for the race and some horses may get excluded. On his home track with recent workouts and only one prove speed horse in Diamond Bachelor. Chitu is a son of Henny Hughes who is a notorious sire of sprinters and many of his horses look like sprinters with the Hennesy/Storm Cat line on the male side. What makes Chitu a little different is the stamina influence on the female side with A. P. Indy. With 2 lifetime races, he has shown he needed the lead in both races and is built very powerfully like a sprinter. So while I’m skeptical of him getting 10 furlongs, Bob Baffert has made a living with fast 3 year olds who are primed to run well in early stakes races for 3 year olds. His last race was accomplished on a “fast” surface so the 1:08 and 4/5 final time is a little deceiving. Not sure if he can rate, but he only has Diamond Bachelor to battle for the front end. In this race he is “the other Baffert” and the price may be right as a speed horse.
El Nino Terrible exits a bad maiden race won in a slow time. Previously he was outrun by Bayern in a fast race that produced a next out winner in Chelios. Pedigree is interesting with Malibu Moon and Giant’s Causeway but overall class level is still in question and running style does not fit well in this race, not speedy enough to show speed and not as solid as the closers.
Diamond Bachelor has been pointing for this race since an off the board finish in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. His Juvenile race was very disappointing, he did not run a step trailing the field in slow fraction and not closing late with the race profile favoring closers that day with a fast pace. Diamond Bachelor ran back to back impressive turf races at Delmar in August and September. On October 6th Diamond Bachelor was involved in a “suicidal” speed duel he was pressed from the start and basically the other jockey rode the race to make Diamond Bachelor lose, similar to Secret Circle this last weekend. So that effort can be excused. I’m still very dubious of War Fronts on the Dirt. Many of his dirt horses have have short careers and developed early. The Factor had a short career and never could ration his speed. Soldat won once and never regained form and his only significant win on dirt was Fountain of Youth at 8.5 furlongs in February of 3 year-old season. Diamond Bachelor also has a high stride and lands hard on his front end, so it’s not that he can’t dirt, it just means it will take a lot out of him when he does. Fast works indicate recent fitness and he has been showing speed in his works. Patrick (Cobra Venom) Biancone trains and he is one of the few trainers who can point and shoot at certain races.
Home Run Kitten adds some intrigue going to the dirt for the first time for David Hoffmans and Smokin Joe Talamo riding. Home Run has been competitive in both races and comes off a win and has run from off the pace in both turf races. Basically it’s a guess if he can dirt. Some Kitten’s have and some haven’t. Not impossible.
Pace:
Interesting to project. Most likely scenario is that Chitu takes the lead early with Diamond Bachelor tracking in 2nd. A second scenario is Diamond Bachelor and Chitu duel for the lead setting up a mid race move by Midnight Hawk. Candy Boy should sit a good trip in third with any scenario.
Selection:
Again making a selection sometimes involves who will be value, who is trying to win now and who is going to develop later. I think Candy Boy is the now horse. He figures to sit the perfect trip behind the speed. The later horse is Cool Samuari who figures to be closing, but has a long string of works. Midnight Hawk is the horse to bet against. He does not have a class edge, high profile owners and visually unimpressive in last race.