A solid turf race at Churchill Downs highlights this weekends action. Silver Max looks to get back on the winning edge, but several rivals appear to be in better current form.
The Skinny:
Silver Max is perceived to be the class of the race and on his best day he may hold a pace edge, but his last couple of races leave lots of questions. Nine furlongs are stretching his limitations and if any pressure may ultimately finish out of the money. Good chance of winning, but could also finish out of the money.
Villandry has some speed to press the pace and sit a good trip. Best races have been at 8.5 furlong and come in with some recent races that make him competitive. His Lure effort was solid and finished only 1 length behind Silver Max in the Firecracker when Silver Max had everything his own way.
Set Sail fits with this group and has a versatile running style. Expect him closer to the pace in this race and has a couple of efforts that can win this. May be a horse for course 3 for 8 wins at Churchill.
Guys Reward is the ultimate G3, classified allowance horse, he’s not good enough for consistent G3 company, but from November to March he does well when many of the good horses are resting up. His best races he lays off the pace and makes a good run at the end. Fits nice in this race. Stablemate Max can set the pace. Guys Reward looks to mow them down late.
Greengrassofyoming is a cleverly named horse who enters at the top of his form cycle. His Remington win was a solid Allowance field. Hits hard at this distance at Churchill and Gulfstream. Win record is 5 for 25 lifetime and seeks some black type in this spot.
Gentleman’s Kitten is representing Kitten nation. Seems a little off his form cycle and lost to Greegrassofyoming in last race with no real excuse. He fits the conditions and his odds will be 7/1. He could win and could run 4th but should put in a good run. Usable in doubles and pick 3’s.
The Selection:
Villandry at 5/1 entices me, sitting off the speed and maybe getting first jump on some of the closers. Greengrassofyoming impressed in Remington win and is another who fits at 6/1.