An overflow field of 16 horses entered their name in the entry box on Monday for the Risen Star Stakes. Due to the starting gate only 14 horses will go. Several horses have been pointing for this race for well over two months.
Vicar’s in Trouble drew the dreaded 14th post position which will force him to use some of his early speed and establish position on the outside of the track. Rosie Naparavink has ridden this son of Into Mischief in 3 straight races, including a dominating MSW win and a runway win by 6 lengths in the LeComte. In horse racing a “Big Win” is classified as 5 lengths or more and over the years horses who have recorded Big Wins usually step up in class to the higher levels. Vicar’s in Trouble was able to ration his speed and had the perfect pace set-up in the last race. Rosie used his speed advantage to lay close to the pace and when called upon opened up a 4 length lead and never looked back. Vicar was noticeably bobbing and weaving in the stretch run of the LeComte. With only 3 starts he can still improve, but the fractions should be more demanding on Saturday and he will have to use speed to establish position. Likely favorite has recorded 3 straight 5 furlong works. Seems ready to run his race again. Facing a large field for the first time in career when he is not the controlling speed will be the question answered on Saturday. He fits on speed figures. But as the Old-Timers Say “the don’t race speed figures, we race horses”.
Commanding Curve has been pointing for the Risen Star since late December by trainer Dallas Stewart. Stewart sent out longshot Golden Soul to a 2nd place finish in the Kentucky Derby in 2013. This colt has shown speed and a quick move on the turn in his last three starts and debuted at Saratoga for his career lid lifter. Has faced 12 and 10 horse fields in his last two races. Ambitiously spotted in full field, a top 5 finish could set him up perfectly for the Louisiana Derby.
Albano is the half brother to Mark Valeski who ran well at the Fairgrounds the past couple of years. He chased Vicar’s in Trouble to the turn in the LeComte and jockey Kerwin Clark waited too long to pull the trigger in that race, allowing Vicar to get the jump and open up a 5 length lead. The length of the stretch Albano battled on and won the 2nd place photo over Gold Hawk. Fits with this group of horses and has the rail and should save ground. Has broken well out of the gate in all his starts and should establish position and make a run at the half time pole. He may get caught on the lead Saturday – has some grit to him.
Rise Up comes in with a flashy win in the Delta Jackpot. Closed out 2013 with 3 stakes wins and sports a 4 for 6 career mark. The plan that was announced after the Delta Jackpot was to run in the Risen Star and then Louisiana Derby. So far nothing has gone off schedule. Rise Up was late back to the work tab recording his first work on January 26th and has only 4 works to get ready for this race. Speed is his trump card and was able to dominate in his stakes win as the controlling speed. His last 2 races were excellent last fall, but he was in shape and ran close to the pace in two races at the Bull Ring of Delta. The Fairgrounds stretch run is over 200 feet longer than Delta and with only 4 works and other speed to his outside Rise Up will be challenged off the layoff. Not sure he gets a good trip in this race and is tough to back at low odds and only 4 workouts. Pedigree is iffy for longer distances and family is from Unbridled’s Songs which tend to get ouchy along the Triple Crown Trail.
Bond Holder enters 2014 with an enviable Juvenile foundation of 7 races which is old school in this day and age. Trainer Doug O’neill announced that the Risen Star would be the return race for Bond Holder several weeks ago. The CashCall Futurity was a 12 horse field and Bond Holder closed 9 lengths behind Shared Belief that day. The CashCall has come back as a competitive race with Candy Boy, Tamarando, and Kobe’s Back all recording wins out of that race in 2014. The pedigree says distance should not be a problem with Mineshaft a multiple stakes winner at 9 furlongs and A. P. Indy a known influence or stayers and distance horses. Conquestador Cielo adds some durability on the female side. Running style has been to lay midpack and grind away which worked as a maiden in the Front Runner Stakes. His Breeders Cup effort was solid. The string of 6 furlong works is impressive leading to this race and it looks like a 2 race campaign is the plan for the Kentucky Derby. Not often you see 6 straight works of 6 furlongs leading up to a race. This guy should be fit, has the class and has run in multiple races of 10, 12 and 13 horse fields so the 14 horse field of this race should not be an issue.
Gold Hawk finished a disappointing 3rd to fans who bet him down to 6/5 favorite in the LeComte after a pair of flashy wins. In the LeComte he was ridden closer to the pace that day and was coming off a fast race only 20 days before, the quick turn-around, the jump in class and laying closer to the pace contributed to his defeat that day. With developing horses very few win them all and Gold Hawk got quite an education that day. The pedigree is solid and looks to be a player at the middle distances with Empire Maker on the male side and Honour and Glory as the broodmare sire. The mare is Caressing who was a G1 winner herself at a route of ground. Has a win at Churchill Downs, and raced well in the long stretch of the Fairgrounds in the allowance win. Corey Nakatani has secured the mount and this will be the first time that he is riding him. Based out of California, Nakatani will have to adjust to the track and to this horse to make his move. Running style is solid, has recent works and with only 3 races, I expect him to post a new top speed figure wise. Expect a good effort and those who bail after the last race may regret it later.
Flat Gone enters with local connections but has several races as a juvenile to build a foundation. His last race was the maiden breaker in his 7th lifetime start. Son of Flatter could go either way. Flatter had a couple of crops with a bunch of sprinters, but the last few years has started to produce a few routers. Flatter is the sire of Kobe’s Back, who may have distance limitations but not class limitations. Flat Gone has a closing running style and his last race was a quick move going into the turn and did so at 6/1 odds. Looks like a long shot in this field, but is in condition, has a couple of races over the track but anything higher than 3rd or 4th could be a reach.
Vigorish is a song of English Channel entered for Calumet farm and Wayne Lukas has had success with these connections with Oxbow, Optimizer and several others. Still a maiden after 6 starts and his last race was a tough luck 2nd in a slow maiden race at Oaklawn Park. Has run in 4 straight races of 10 horses or more so field size should not be a problem. Runs as a presser and with the speed signed on his move at the 4 furlong pole is probably mitigated by the front runners and the closers will enhale coming into the turn. Longshot today, but worth playing when he goes back on turf.
Interchange ran a disapointing 5th in his 2014 debut against a couple of entrants in todays race. Undefeated at two with a couple of nice wins on the East coast. I expect an improved effort in the Risen Star but probably not enough to crack the top 2 positions. Has sturdy pedigree with several stamina influences. Could improve and has solid workouts. Last race may not be truly indicative of his talent level. Expect him to improve a little and possible challenge for top 5.
Intense Holiday ships to Fairgrounds looking for some class relief. Loser of 4 straight races against Cairo Prince and Honor Code and Havana, he takes to the Risen Star with a drop in class and has a stretch kick when he runs his best race. His speed figures have plateaued of late and with 6 lifetime races he may not have much room to improve. Two workouts in February and a January race should have him fit for the distance and he has run in several big fields. He is capable of closing, but not sure I want to take two short of a price in this race on a new surface. The upside is he has faced the best of his generation in my races and held his own. Price will be 5/1 or so which is a tough call either way.
Son of a Preacher finished 4th in the Smarty Jones. The Smarty Jones was a strange run with the 1-2-3 finishers running that same way around the track and late in the day speed did well. Deserves a 2nd chance in stakes competition after losing to Gold Hawk after being forced to the front in the small field. Overall a tough slow in a race like this but not completely out of the question if he improves a few lengths.
Hoppertunity enters with a lot of intrigue and upside. Several factors in his favor including an impressive maiden win in the last race at Santa Anita. He sat a perfect trip that day at the rail but this long, leggy horse really had a nice stride late and galloped out strong after the wire. Any Given Saturday was a solid 9 furlong horse and has 3 crops with limited success. His half sister was a nice runner. His debut race was a solid effort and several runners have come back to run well and win in fast times. 3rd start of form cycle is a strong factor in his favor. Shipping is always interesting but Bob Baffert has shipped successfully to this track for years with both fillies and colts. This horse caught my eye on several occasions with who he has been working in company in the mornings and several long workouts leading up to his first race. His debut race he broke slow and then rushed up and closed against strong horses. Long term this horse may be a player. Baffert did win the Risen Star with Wimbledon at 8/1 who won his previous start in a MSW out West as well. Lots of angles to like and price will be right. Workout pattern sharp.
Quick Indian upset the apple cart in what was supposed to be Unknown Road’s coming out party. Unknown Road came up with Testicle problems in the race and for some reason this allowed this son of Indian Charlie to capture the victory at 8/1. Modest price purchase of 75K has run against stakes horses in all of his races including Son Of Dixie who ran in the Southwest Stakes on Monday. Sheikinator who ran in the Cashcall Futurity. Running style is of Presser/Early Closer and that fits in this type of race if the pace gets hot up front. Merril Scherer is capable of getting horses ready and is a long established Midwest trainer. Pedigree limitations may start to get in play with Indian Charlie known more as miler type. But A. P. Indy is on the female side and the mare was a nice runner. Nice stab at the auction for 75K has already earned back 55K.
Xtra Luck enters as the 3rd place finisher in the 5 horse race with Quick Indian and the no-show Unknown Road. Best races have been on the engine and does not have the speed to hang and bang for 6 furlongs with a group like this. Taking a shot and Danny Pish is capable Southwest trainer. No harm no foul in entering a race like this with a horse who has limited opportunities to find NW of 2 allowance this time of year. I probably have a better chance of getting hit by a milk truck in bed than Xtra Luck winning this race. Full fields are fun – let’s see what he’s got.
The Pace:
We saw on Monday a bulky field doesn’t always ensure a quick page, but it can cause trouble if you have a slow start. Many of these 3 year olds are not conditioned to withstand making an early move into a faster pace than expected and still run on at the finish. I’m not sold on Rise Up. He has only 4 workouts in the last month to get ready for this race. Vicar’s In Trouble has an outside post and has to establish some kind of position early but it will sap energy that he may need later on. Gold Hawk will get horses to pass this time, I also expect Hoppertunity to sit 6th or 7th and make a move going into the turn. I would not be surprised if Albano is on the lead Saturday.
The Selection:
At low odds Rise Up is the bet against. Longer stretch at the Fairgrounds, not totally cranked up and facing much tougher than the two races back at Delta. The Delta Jackpot he blew the race open with his speed and class and was in shape. I don’t expect that off the layoff would be quite demanding. I’m leaning Hoppertunity and Gold Hawk as my top 2 selections. Hoppertunity is a nice looking horse with solid pedigree and large frame. Gold Hawk gets some pace to run at and a little refresher since the 3 races in 6 weeks. Should be fit with recent works.