Several newcomers have shipped in for the Risen Star which has a attracted a competitive field of 10.
1. Saint Joe Bay is a speed sort from Santa Anita who is stepping up in class and going a distance that will probably prove to far. His best races have been on the lead or near the lead. Inside post helps and helps ensure an honest pace with J S Bach and Hero of Humor.
2. Tiznow R J ran a strong race in the LeComte after pressing the fast pace and exchanging leads twice with Hero of Humor. Dug in all the way to the stretch and after being passed was still running at the wire. Six furlong work last week was fast and should have him fit. Sitting on a career best race. This is the type of horse getting good at the right time and has the pedigree to back it up.
3. Bluff demolished a field easily in his last start and training well since then. The lightbulb seems to have turned on and sits in with a chance from just off the pace. Faced impressive maiden winners Tiznow R J and Vici in 2nd race who came back to regress at Oaklawn Park. Hard to get a handle on his current form, but meeting faster, more experienced foes in this spot.
4. J S Bach ships in from Florida and Oaklawn Park. With the cold weather in Arkansas all week shipped to Fairgrounds and will probably be one of the favorites based off impressive maiden win. Looks like a sprinter and runs with quick stride. Long Louisiana Stretch works against him if Hero of Humor and Tiznow R J show speed in this race. Do not like the fact he shipped twice and had to wait a week to run.
5. Imperia has been training in Florida and ran a strong second in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. Pedigree is out of a G1 winning mare. Sire has produced some distance horses. Running style and pedigree should put him in with a big chance.
6. War Story scratched out of the Southwest Stakes because of post position. Gets a new jockey for this race and comes from off the pace and should a make a move going into the stretch. Needs to improve to beat the top horses. Sitting at top of form cycle.
7. Hero of Humor showed speed in the LeComte, then picked up a win in the allowance race over a small field. Is outclassed but does bring some speed to the table and can take this field a long way if no one gets involved early. Needs to be respected but can’t let him get away with easy fractions.
8. Keen Ice running style and overall speed is his greatest hurdles. Needed a monster rally to win maiden race. Ran closer to the pace in the Holy Bull and should like the long Fairgrounds stretch. Still seems slow. Needs a pace collapse.
9. Big Big Easy had a big win at Keeneland last fall but has regressed off that win. Has alternated strong efforts with really bad races. His 3 losses have been by 15, 15 and 22 lengths. Does have a string of long works and they are aggressively spotting him in this race.
10. International Star picked up nice win in the LeComte and has 2 stakes wins now. His Gray Stakes win as a juvenile was a solid victory and really strided out late down the lane. Been training in Florida and shipping in to race. Had the 1 post position last time and now gets the outside post. Just trying to hold form in this race, doesn’t need to win and think he runs evenly in this race. Natural running style should put him in position on turn.
Fair Odds:
J S Bach 4/1
Imperia 4/1
War Story 6/1
Tiznow R J 6/1
The Choice:
J S Bach is meeting winners and shipping twice, he is tough to back at low odds. Imperia is the choice. On paper he is a little slow, but should like the distance, seems fit, visually impressive move in Kentucky Jockey Club after a long drive. Odds of 4/1 are fair in a race like this. Tiznow R J figures to run a solid race and 6/1 fair price.