Nashua winner Blofeld skips this race taking a breather for 60 days before getting back in training down in Florida. Several visually impressive maiden winners and some sharp winners of fast races will compete at 9 furlongs. 14 horses filled up the field with post position draws affecting the landscape of the race.
The Skinny:
Classy Class was a dominating winner in debut. Broke well in that race and then was rated in 3rd place while a lone speed horse opened up by 6 lengths, going into the turn the speedster faded badly and then Classy Class inhaled the leader and took the lead. What was impressive was the way he lowered his head the final 1/16th of the race and opening up by 5. Well muscled. The pedigree says distance may be an issue, but on raw talent and visually watching his debut this guy has a lot of upside. Did not draw a good post.
Frosted comes from the same barn as Classy Class and strided out with authority in maiden victory over the solid Aldrin who was well meant in that last race. Frosted was hammered at the windows in the last race. Son of Tapit has been professional in all of his starts. Looks like a route. Recent works are sharp. Long term this guy will be a player and expect him to go favored. Strong gallop outs the last 2 races indicate he should get the extra distance. Leggy colt, is well proportioned and has some bottom to him. Drew the 14 post position which unbetable.
Combat Diver improved substantially in last race. Was contemplating a Breeders Cup Juvenile trip. Been working out long and has a string of works. Expect him to run a good race. Needs to improve by 5 or 6 lenths to pick up the win.
The Truth or Else impressed in maiden victory and came up short in last 2 stakes races. This is a horse who needs a big field and solid pace to run into. Likes to draft and pass horses. Gaining experience in these minor stakes. Running style is to lay mid pack should get some speed to run at and a solid pace with 3 speeds on “Paper”. Can improve off Nashua effort.
Ostrolenka has dominated the last 2 races on paper and on the track. New York bred son of Musket Man has worked well following that race. Seems to be the now horse and 9 furlongs will be pushing him to his distance limitations. But worth taking a shot. He is sharp, fit and figures to be close to the pace and expect him to take some pounding at the windows.
Royal Burgh won a driving finish at Keeneland, eligible to improve and should like the distance. Like his stable mate Ostrolenka much more on Saturday. Pedigree could develop later and this is a good foundation builder for a winter campaign. Debut race was slow, but raced 4 wide down the backstretch and 3 wide through the turn and was involved in long drive.
Thirtsevenliveson is still a maiden is a half brother to Mine That Bird and has been running in long races. Has some talent but not enough speed to really contend with these. One to watch develop down the road.
Flashaway was entered in both the Kentucky Jockey Club and ran a big race to an impressive winner in his last effort. Has a nice running style and seems to be improving at the right time. A threat to take some of the purse if he opts for this spot.
The Selection:
Post Position Draws were horrendous in this race. The 3 favorites drew posts 11, 12 and 14. Frosted and Classy Class were impressive in maiden victories and have the pedigree to be really good. But tough to back out of those post positions. Royal Burgh may be the play at 8/1 odds, has enough speed to lay close and may go up in the betting based on slow Keeneland race.
Personal Betting line with the Post Positions factored in:
Classy Class 5/1
Frosted 7/1
Royal Burgh 8/1
Flashaway 8/1 – if he runs.
Ostrolenka 6/1