American Pharoah leads a field of 7 horses. Which is really a 4 horse field in disguise. “Pharoah” is 1/2 on the morning line.
The Skinny:
The Truth or Else has some back races that can compete with this field. His maiden win at Belmont was a fast win. Caught a sloppy track in the Champagne and faced a solid horse in Upstart. Closed in his last race. Most likely to get 2nd and a strong late effort could set him up for the Arkansas Derby at 9 furlongs.
Madefromlucky enters off a couple of wins that don’t look good visually, has some speed but not the raw speed of the American Pharoah. Most likely sits 1st or 2nd and may get a candy trip.
Tizwonderfulcreek is entered to give the appearance that this is a 7 horse field. Outclassed in every imaginable way and would need the top 4 horses to jump the fence to compete.
American Pharoah is the 2-year-old champion making his 3-year-old debut. Trainer Bob Baffert is 14 for 28 wins and has won 4 of the last 5 Rebel Stakes. Worked a mile in 1:36 and change. Looks like the speed of the speed and should be able to set 1:12 fractions and coast on in. Formidable and most likely winner. Dominates on class and distance and recent works have him fit.
Bold Conquest closed in seasonal debut. Looks like 8.5 furlongs should be a good distance. Overall is a G2/G3 horse and can improve, but has never run a race as fast as The Truth or Else or American Pharoah. Top 4 finish likely.
Paid Admission is what they like to call “Filler” in a race like this. Slow, no speed and not in best form. He’s 1 for 6 with a win at Delta. If you are looking at the form and pick this horse. Another hobby may be in order.
Sakima is another with limited race record moving up in class. Down the road may be ok, but heavily placed over his head in this spot.
Fair Line:
American Pharoah 1/2
The Truth or Else 10/1
Bold Conquest 15/1
The Choice: Unless American Pharoah falls down out of the gate this is his race to win and get ready for the Arkansas Derby. The Truth or Else is most logical to run 2nd.