The road to Kentucky continues Saturday at Oaklawn Park with the Rebel Stakes. To the victors go 50 Derby points and ensures a spot in Louisville. This year the Rebel offers a mix of stakes horses and a few recent winners stepping up in class. The Rebel Roll-call in recent years is a pretty good roster. The race may be a prep, but the winner of the Rebel is usually a quality horse.
Kobe’s Back ships in from Santa Anita after a big victory in the G2 San Vincente. The key question for Kobe is the distance. His two stakes wins are in sprints and his lone attempt at a distance is a throw-out race in the 13 horse CashCall Futurity when he experienced quite a bit of trouble down the backstretch. The pedigree says more sprinter-miler than classic route distance. Overall his speed has been brilliant and his two losses to champion 2-year old Shared Belief look good on his resume. It should be noted that both his stakes wins were in a 6 and 5 horse field and both times he was the favorite. So he has done what he is supposed to do. This will be a step up in class taking on proven stakes winners in Strong Mandate and Tapiture. The general consensus from most handicappers is that he may be a late-running sprinter. I’m leaning to him running a big race at Oaklawn. Post #8 should be perfect for his running style. Oaklawn has a short stretch and many winners in route rates make huge moves going into the turn and take advantage of the short stretch. Very live and the price is right. Santa Anita horses do well in the spring preps at Oaklawn.
Ride On Curlin has raced at four different tracks in 7 lifetime starts. A big win at Ellis in July received attention from the speed figure makers. His Southwest Stakes was a horrible trip and his 10 length loss on paper was a much better effort. Racing 7 wide down the backstretch and then a bold move brought him to third place and engaging the leaders while racing wide. His 2nd move racing wide into the turn was negated when Tapiture took the rail and made a quick move to spurt away. Ride on Curlin tired, but still plugged away down the stretch and held 3rd place. Has a win at Oaklawn two races back and was ridden hard in his last race. His best race was in the Champagne when he trailed early and made one run entering the turn and close for 3rd against strong competition in Honor Code and Havana. His Iroquois effort was huge – chasing a fast pace for 3 calls and getting passed late. Continues to be active on the work tab and gets a new jockey for this race. Should be in peak form, needs to be ridden from behind with one big run to really have a chance to win.
Hoppertunity made an audible from the Louisiana Derby and showed up in the Rebel field. I have been intrigued by his pedigree since I saw him nominated to a race last fall. Any Given Saturday was a talented horse who gave Street Sense all he could handle at Tampa Bay and AGS also defeated Curlin in the Haskell. The mare produced a nice runner in Executiveprivelege. Hoppertunity has made a habit of dominating the Gallop Outs in all three of his races. In his maiden win he galloped out 15 lengths better than the field. In this case it is really just indicating he can run a good distance. He needs to get involved in the race earlier. His maiden victory he had the pocket trip and sat at the rail before making his move against tiring horses. In this race he has to chase proven speed and hold off a couple of closers. This horse could still be something down the road but hard to imagine a win on Saturday.
Strong Mandate is one of the most polarizing horses of this crop of 3-year olds. He has class which is shown by his 9 length G1 Hopeful. He has also raced 3 times in stakes races at one mile or more and is yet to win any of them. His Southwest Stakes on paper looks good running 2nd while having multiple trip notes in his past performances – running wide, bold move on the backstretch, 2nd move going into the turn. Visually he was bobbing and weaving and changed leads several times down the stretch in the Southwest, while losing ground on the winner. With the cold and snow – Strong Mandate did lose a week of training going into the Southwest and that may have had him short for the race. Recent works indicate some new tactics.
Strong Mandate breezed five-eighths in 1:03.60 first set at #Oaklawn, w/ head clocker Jim Hamilton getting final quarter in 23.40 seconds.
— Mary Rampellini (@DRFRampellini) March 6, 2014
Rosario stays aboard, needs a strong race to compete with this field, best races have been on the lead but he will be pressured at the 6 furlong mark. Too many question for my liking. But if you like raw talent then possibly worth taking. A win makes this a tough and deep 3 year-old bunch.
Tapiture made a huge jump in speed figures with his Southwest Stakes win. Had the pocket trip that day, was a little rank on the backstretch while Santana tapped on the breaks, but found a seam on the inside shortly before the stretch and exploded quickly to a 3-length lead when his main competitors were finding trouble all over the track. He finished with authority and galloped out strong. He’s now a two-time stakes winner and his speed figures have improved significantly. Has a strong bottom with 4 races as a juvenile. Like the Monday workout to get him sharp. Has danced all the dances sets the bar high for many of his challengers. Pedigree says 8.5 furlongs is within scope. Top effort wins, and running style should allow for top 3 finish at the worst. Slightly under-appreciated.
Street Strategy enters a stakes race after a dominating Maiden victory on January 30th. Visually his maiden win looked very good winning in hand, with long and powerful strides down the stretch. Calvin Borel jumps off Ride on Curlin to keep the mount. This son of Street Sense out of the Notebook mare has recorded 3 works since the runaway maiden score. His first career starts was a close 2nd in a live “maiden” race with multiple winners coming back to win. Big potential and I feel he is going to run a big race Saturday. Pedigree is solid for the distance, local trainer and a victory over the track. Only concern is the 6 week break since the win. Worth using on both in-race and multi race exotics. Has the talent to be a good one and hard to ignore in this spot. Good progression sets him up for Arkansas Derby.
Sheltowee’s Boy looks over-matched in this spot. His last race looks good on paper, but a strong speed duel, cooked the front-runners and several runners closed in that race with Sheltowee’s Boy taking advantage drawing off to victory. Bourbonize beat him on the square 2 races back. Pedigree says miler and recent works indicates he is fit from the last race. Has some potential but the weeds are high in this race and not sure if he is G2 caliber at this point of career.
The Pace:
Look for Strong Mandate to be headstrong and engage for the lead He looms large as the target to catch. If he relaxes he will be a handful. Tapiture should be sitting no worse than 3rd place at the half mile pole. Ride On Curlin will probably sit mid-pack trying to make one run. A strong pace should help Kobe’s Back who will make his move going into the turn.
The Choice:
Tapiture has done nothing wrong the last 3 races. I like the last two workouts. Working on Monday he should be fresh and get the lungs aired out. Carried a lot of flesh in the last race and looks like he has some muscle to work with. He won the Southwest by 4 lengths and made a quick move when going to the lead. More people were talking about the losers then talking about his winning effort. I expect him to improve off that effort. Strong Mandate should ensure a fast pace, but question his overall ability to get 8.5 furlongs with a quick pace. He has yet to win at a race over 1 mile. Kobe’s Back should get the perfect trip into the fast pace. Tapiture is my top choice to make the Rebel Yell, Kobe’s Back 2nd.