Preakness Stakes 2015
Several “New Shooters” invade for the Preakness Stakes with the “Tight Turns” and short stretch of Pimlico. Every cliché will be in play as American Pharaoh attempts the wheel back on two weeks rest.
The Skinny:
American Pharoah ran a solid Kentucky Derby. Was wide and tracked every step of the way. Was hard pressed to hold off two solid and classy horses the length of the Louisville stretch. Capable of moving forward in 4th start of the year, or could regress with 3rd race in 5 weeks. Derby victory was a huge effort and was the best horse that day. Likely 4/5 favorite. Has a win in the slop but not sure he will run his best race on an off surface.
Dortmund: They call him Big D and he did not disappoint in the Kentucky Derby running 3rd after setting the pace. His derby was a solid race, he was hounded every step of the way by Firing Line and American Pharoah. He set a solid pace to the mile mark and faded late. Shorter distance and I project a similar pace in Baltimore. Has the speed to take the lead and may fall into a stalking trip if Firing Line wants the lead. Capable.
Mr. Z was a last-minute entry into the Preakness following a sale to a new owner. Trainer remains the same. Solid races as a juvenile but recent races have been sub par. Lost last 3 races convincingly. Form cycle is on the decline and tough to back on a win ticket, but he is still probably better than Tale of Verve.
Firing Line huge effort in Derby and fell short while not changing leads late in the race. Lightly raced, capable of improving and looks to be training well since Kentucky. Can reverse the table on American Pharoah. Has the speed to press the pace. Sunland effort was over a weak bunch but he did have a pressured half before drawing away. Gary Stevens won the Preakness a couple of year’s back with Oxbow. Built like a router and may be the “freshest” of the top 3. Slop would not hurt his chances.
Divining Rod defeated a sub par group in the Lexington Stakes and was clearly over-matched at Tampa Bay. Moving up in class and facing G1 and G2 talent. Still improving, but needs to improve off last race and have one of the top 3 to regress in this spot to put in best effort. Came from off the pace in most recent pace but set the pace in Florida a couple of times this winter. Ultimately probably best suited for the grass.
Bodhisattva is the “Local” horse who won his last race with a low speed figure. Class rise to Grade 1 level talent will be steep for this guy who is several lengths slower than the top contenders. Needs to improve and running style may put him at a disadvantage as he faces classier, faster, horses who are in form and training well. Pretender and over-matched in this spot.
Tale of Verve was an also eligible in the Kentucky Derby, but did not make the field and enters the Preakness Stakes off a maiden win. Running style is that of a closer who will be well back early and try to make up ground late. Big step up in class to Grade 1 level competition and running style may be against the flow of the race. Tale of Verve is not a win contender in this spot and would need several horses to regress in order to hit the top 3. Pretender and will not be on my tickets.
Danzig Moon ran a solid race to finish 5th in the Kentucky Derby. His Tampa Bay race is the only race on his resume that he did not perform and he may have been sick that day by a few reported outlets. Bluegrass got a great trip and finished with some energy. Still not sure he is a true 10 furlong horse, but class wise is Grade 1/2 caliber and should run his race on Saturday.
Fair Odds:
Dortmund 3/1
Firing Line 7/2
American Pharoah 5/2
The Choice:
If the Kentucky Derby was run 10 times. American Pharoah would win 4, Firing Line 3 and Dortmund 2. The top 3 are simply better than the rest of these horses. I’m going with Firing Line in this spot. Feel he can come back quicker off the 2 week layoff and really battled it out last time. This is a quality horse who never runs a bad race. Has lost 3 tough races all with no excuses. This race will be decided by trip, jockey, and pace and I feel Firing Line can adapt.
Selection 2015 Year to Date
19 for 49
$53.90 Profit
.60 ROI