California Chrome goes for the second jewel of the Triple Crown – Dominating two weeks ago in Kentucky, he will be asked the question on the turn – this time in Baltimore. California Chrome is the only one left who can become the first Triple Crown winner in 36 years.
California Chrome has left no doubt – that he is the most dominating 3-year-old to date and the past 60 days have been perfect. Never missing a workout, hitting all the races on the calendar on his schedule. On paper he was the best horse in Louisville. In Baltimore – he faces a few more “true” speed horses. Make no mistake, Social Inclusion has “8” speed points, Bayern likes being on the engine and Pablo Del Monte is best running on the front end. So Chrome with his push button speed will be looking to stalk one, maybe two lengths off the speed and turn on the engine one more time going into the turn. The closers are outclassed in this race, so being close to the pace and ready to throttle will be key. Also I’m not a believer in the Preakness is a “short race” – it’s closer to 10 furlongs than 9 furlongs. There really is not much handicapping, but every Derby winner since 1985 has run in the Preakness – while the losers always take months off, or rest for the Belmont Stakes. Some horse leap forward with a big race, other’s regress going into the Preakness. The only question is Chrome capable of firing a Beyer speed figure between 97 and 102 which will be required to win on two-weeks rest. He has five straight wins – he has dominated. Elected to have no works since Preakness. Galloping only the last 2 weeks.
Bayern is always a horse who has been one start “behind”. His maiden win was in January – impressive and a key race in many ways. He then drew off with authority in a NW of 2 allowance race. With reverse fractions. That race was very strange. He ran the 2nd fast of the race faster than the first and had a strong final quarter. He then missed some time and passed the San Felipe. His Oaklawn was not very good visually. His last race was a contested race from the bell to the wire and despite drifting out and being race-rode. I like the fact he comes back in a longer race, has to face other speed, but may be toughened up from that last effort. Pedigree has always been questionable at this distance. Speed is his forte – has the speed to take the lead, and will put in a fight. Sharp works, a couple of stamina building races and looks to sit a good trip. Biggest question is distance and getting involved in a speed duel with Social Inclusion. As a lone front-runner he would be very intriguing. Look for him no worse than 2nd at the 6 furlong mark and expecting a strong move when asked. 8/1 is fair odds. New Jockey and no blinkers.
Ring Weekend is a horse who seems to be declining. His Calder Derby was a horrible race with no excuse. He caused all his own problems. His Tampa race was a race his jockey “stole” winging it on the front end. The form from the Tampa and Calder race has been horrible. I can’t justify using this horse under any circumstances. If you like slow horses, who seem to be going off form and are distance-challenged then this is the guy for you.
Kid Cruz takes a rise in class. The speed figures are just not in the ballpark of the proven horses in this race. He is going to be spotting this field anywhere from 15-20 lengths. In Grade 1 races. Class counts and speed counts. His rallies against slower horses look good visually. A win would completely shock me. People like closers so his odds will be lower than his true chances of winning.
Pablo Del Monte is the “now” horse, ran a big race in the Blue Grass on a day when closers did well and any horse near the lead – faded badly. He had a couple of big races as a 2-year-old – he could be a poly horse. His Florida form looked sketchy at the time, but Wildcat Red and General A Rod ended up running well all winter. A short freshening and nice Keeneland race. Last 2 works have been 6 furlongs, and some positive comments coming from the connections. Speed is his weapon, but doesn’t need the lead to win. I think he is very sharp right now and a pace duel with Social Inclusion is likely but capable of hanging 2nd. The distance may do him in as well. I like this horse and think he is talented, just not sure with all this speed if he will run his best race come Saturday. 15/1 is fair value.
Dynamic Impact has back to back wins and seems to be getting better in the last two races. Tiznow breeding could be kicking in at this point. Last race in Illinois was a solid effort. Like the way he was able to stay close to the pace and after a long drive was competitive and put his nose on the line at the wire. If you are expecting a regression from some of the top contenders this horse is playable at a price. Possibly a step slow but could be ready for a new top. Post position should put him in good spot.
General A Rod never seemed to get on-track in the Kentucky Derby. He has natural speed as well. Florida form was solid and fits on class and speed figures. Could be going off form after a long campaign. Liked his work-outs going into the Derby. If you can ignore Derby effort, the price may be right on a horse with good tactical speed, overall good form. Son of Roman Ruler could hit hard in this spot. Gritty campaigner had some nice races in Florida. Derby he ran evenly and was bottled up during the race.
Social Inclusion is like Bayern – always a race behind. He debuted late, was wheeled back in a phony allowance win at Gulfstream. Had a wide post and broke a step slow in the Wood. Took the lead with a demanding half mile and on the turn opened up. Horses like this could go either way. He could take a leap forward in 2nd route against class horses. Or he could regress going longer distance with only 3 lifetime starts. Missed a “prep” race with a foot issue. Workouts have all been short, most of them 3 furlongs – spaced. Expect him on the lead – capable of winning – 4/1 is fair value.
Ride On Curlin – the Pride of Ellis Park doesn’t seem to have a plan. He ships everywhere. Some races he shows speed, other races he closes. He has run inside horses in the Southwest. He has made wide moves outside horses in the Arkansas Derby. Bronco Billy puts Borel on and then takes him off. His Kentucky Derby race was a strange trip. I just don’t see any race that puts him in the winners circle in a Grade 1. He’s danced all the dance, and tries hard every time. Fans may just have to realize that he is what he is at this point. His odds will be lower than others – because he ran in the Derby. The pace actually suits him perfectly, he should be able to sit 4-7 lengths off the leaders and if a speed duel develops he could be the guy coming late. If he goes back to closing he might run in the top 3. Fair odds 14/1. 5/1 probably to hit 3rd or 4th. Right running style with potential pace of race.
The Pace:
This will be the key. Social Inclusion seems the most head-strong for the lead. Bayern seems the fastest and Pablo Del Monte is very sharp right now. Chrome has natural speed, but usually finds himself on the lead after 6 furlongs in the past 5 races or near the lead. Chrome coming back on two weeks rest may be relaxed early, but now is not the time to lay 5-6 lengths off the pace. I expect Social Inclusion to be on the lead after 4 furlongs but Bayern and Pablo will make their presence at some point.
The Choice:
The Derby was a moderate pace. The Preakness looks like a fast pace. The closers look slow. Off the pace types may have the edge. On paper California Chrome looks all of 3/5. If you handicap the race – Chrome is the choice – but when wagering – you are wagering on him coming back on two weeks rest at 3/5 odds. That’s not a smart wager. If you want the best chance for a winning ticket bet on California Chrome. If you want a chance at a potential score for the year. Pablo Del Monte offers some intriguing potential in the exacta, trifecta and superfecta at a large price.