50% of the game is 75% pitching
The ultimate form of speculation is set to begin today with pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Futures. Final odds will be set at 6:00 pm Eastern on Sunday night. I’m a personal fan of the Future Wager, a slightly disgruntled fan in the potential payoffs that could happen with a pool of 40 horses and those resulting exacta payoffs. Hopefully next year 40 horses or better yet the entire Triple Crown nominations can be included in pool 1.
Making the Derby is the biggest obstacle for Kentucky Derby Future Wagers in Pool 1. Below are the number of horses who have made the Derby Starting Gate since 2001 from Pool 1.
Year/ Pool 1 runners in Derby:
2012 12 2011 5
2010 7 2009 5
2008 12 2007 10
2006 11 2005 8
2004 9 2003 5
2002 5 2001 9
Last year was an exceptionally “formful” year matching 2008 with 12 horses surviving and advancing to the Kentucky Derby Starting gate. This years horses in pool once face a tougher challenge with the new points system no horse has been “guaranteed” a spot in the starting gate.
Many of the horses in pool one do not have any “points”, while other horses are lightly raced and will have to step up and receive points in the next three weeks to be included in pool two.
I will be watching the odds Friday and Saturday and come back with some possible Win and Exacta bets.