The Peter Pan Stakes continues a trend in 2015 of small fields lined up for many of the Sophomore Stakes races. A field of 5 has signed on the for Peter Pan with Wolf Man Rocket the only previous stakes winner.
The Skinny:
Wolf Man Rocket enters off a game win in the Northern Spur las out. Dueled with Hillbilly Royalty at the top of the stretch before winning late as a maiden in that race. Now has 3 starts and now stretching out to 9 furlongs for the first time. Mineshaft and Deputy Minister add both distance and class in the immediate pedigree and owns a set of 95 speed figures from Brisnet. Contender.
MadefromLucky bypassed the Kentucky Derby for this smaller field and drop in class. Seemed to be going the wrong way in Arkansas the last 2 races and doesn’t really own a class edge. May be overbet off some good running lines but this horse never competed against American Pharoah in the last 2 races. Possible False Favorite.
Conquest Curlinate should love the 9 furlong distance and has a plodding running style which makes him the closer in a small field. Should come running but the race flow will be against his running style.
Two Weeks Off crushed an allowance race at Keeneland in his last race off the layoff. Loomed 4 wide and drew off on a day that the track was favoring outside horses down the lane. Speed figure came back on the light side. But has room to improve. Pedigree is solid for 9 furlongs and with only 3 lifetime races could improve similar to Wolf Man Rocket. Contender.
Tiz Shea D picked up a maiden win at Parx this winter and has been outclassed in the Gotham and Wood Memorial. Private purchase after the maiden win will pick up some Black Type in this small field but is outclassed and does not have the speed to hang with the other four horses in this race.
Selection 2015 Year to Date
19 for 47
$61.90 Profit
.67 ROI
Fair Odds:
Two Weeks Off 8/5
Wolf Man Rocket 9/5
The Selection:
Two Weeks Off impressed visually in the Keeneland Allowance win. He hinted at speed and distance last fall at Saratoga and drew away last race. Does not need the lead and can take the lead, or sit chilly and press Wolf Man Rocket. The Choice and 8/5 is a fair price.