Grade II status and prime real estate on the calendar make the Peter Pan a traditional prep for a late bloomer who has Belmont Stakes ideas. It allows one last chance for a new “shooter” to take a step up and also a few early developing distance-challenged horses get one last shot at Graded Stakes glory.
Matterhorn is the first of a Trifecta of Tapits in this field. He was noticeably absent from the workout tab until January 19th and was cold on the board in the betting in his 3 year-old debut. In his last race he faced older horses and ran evenly. Gets a jockey switch to JR Velazquez and the rail in this spot. Capable of improving off last effort, but may be destined to be sharper in Grade 3 and races at 8.5 furlongs.
Fabulous Kid impressed with a flashy speed figure in debut race and came back and ran a solid race to the more experienced Bourbonize in last race. With only 2 lifetime races and Lemon Drop Kid on the mare side this horse should like the distance and still has room to improve and grow into that pedigree. Price should be right and if you like a horse who possibly could improve than this is the horse.
Commissioner is from the last crop of A. P Indy and has disappointed betters on multiple occasions. He takes a drop in class in this race. He just doesn’t seem to have any early speed and from the races I have watched he doesn’t have any late speed either. He is the ultimate “grinder” distance horse. As Elvis Presley said “it’s now or never” for this guy @chare889 is probably going – “who is Elvis Presley?” but in this case it’s time to step up. Overall the price will be low and he has run 6 times and has raced at 5 different race tracks in 6 races. He needs a plan and needs some consistency.
Tonalist is the Tapit worth talking about in this race. Really fell for this guy in his maiden win back on January 18th. Liked the way he was the patient in the pocket which is unusual for a Tapit and was calm and went to the leader with a big move and really seemed to be striding away late. In his last race, he faced a loaded field. Constitution later won the Florida Derby and the 4th place finisher Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial in his next start. So he exits a possible key race. He has the look of a leggy router and a body style that looks like it will take a lot of wind. Was pointed to the Wood Memorial and then missed a work-out with a cough. He had a sharp 5 furlong move last weekend. This is the horse with the most upside and the Pleasant Colony and female family make this a horse that could be a serious Belmont contender. Price will be short, but plenty to get excited about.
Tapicero has won back to back races at Calder and the last race came back with a nice speed figure from off the pace. Has been consistent with 5 of 6 record in the money. Stretches out to 9 furlongs for the first time, but Calder is a deep track that is good for training. Proven closer who may be better than a few “name” horses in this race. Price is right and could see him in top 2 or 3 with even a small chance of winning if everything went right.
Our Caravan was pointed to this race after a big win in the Calder Derby. He defeated Ring Weekend that race in a slow time, but made a good visual move on the turn. Strong female pedigree with proven Grade 1 winners in the female family. Is starting to get good and faced the best of Florida all winter. Only 1 work in last month – which is odd.
Irish You Well is a maiden in a stakes race and made a nice move in the Illinois Derby. Ability is there, but in with a tough field to break through with a win. But the checks are adding up and has earned close to 80K as a maiden. Distance is right and a good work has him fit.
The Pace:
Fabulous Kid should be the pace setter at the 4 furlong mark. Matterhorn and Tonalist should sit good trips in the 2nd flight of horses. Our Caravan fits with this class level and is capable of taking the lead if the pace is slow. Irish You Well is the closer.
The Choice: I’m picking Tonalist based on improvement, visually I think he looked good in Florida and like the string of workouts before missing a few days of training. One of the few horses capable of moving up in class to Grade 1 level on ability. Fabulous Kid is the speed and has a routers build and pedigree. Fractions may be slow and he may hang on for a piece.