The city of Brotherly Love hosts the G2 2015 Pennsylvania Derby. Frosted, Upstart and Madefromlucky headline the action. Contention runs 5 deep with Frosted the morning line favorite.
2015 Pennsylvania Derby Field
War Story has been off form for about 3 months and I’m not sure he is competitive at the G2 level. Best races were in the spring. Enters Philadelphia riding a 6 race losing streak. His best races were at 7 furlongs and 1 mile, suggesting he is a late running sprinter or miler. He is a good swimmer according to DRF articles.
Island Town won the Smarty Jones drawing off to win by 6 widening lengths. The margin of victory was not indicative of a strong performance. Souper Colossal and Battle Midway were both fading at the finish. Moves up in class and facing some strong horses who are at the end of longer campaigns. Now with 8 lifetime races and 4 wins, he fits at this level, and still has some upside. Fair odds is 8/1.
Frosted dueled the champion American Pharoah into the ground in the Travers. Gritty runner doesn’t have the flashy speed. Has danced all the dances and ran well in multiple races. He hits hard in this spot. Would be nice to see him pick up a win. He clearly is the 2nd or 3rd best horse of this generation and his resume is solid on every level. His weakness he doesn’t have a quick turn of foot and he is always in danger of someone running a big race and getting the victory. Has a lopsided lifetime running line with 2 wins and 6 lifetime seconds telling the story. Needs to be ridden aggressively and make a bold move on the turn to pick up the victory. Most likely favored and 2/1 would be fair price.
Iron Fist carries a flashy sales price and has top connections and is overbet every race. At this point in his career he is who he is. He’s a G3, possibly G2 horse in a small field. But in a full field and facing other speed and shipping for the 2nd time not seeing him as a viable win contender. He is always a underlay because of his 1.5 million dollar price tag. Several others are better win contenders in this spot. Most likely 15/1 in this spot to actually win the race. Did get stuck on the rail in West Virginia last race which was a sink hole that day. Solid work pattern since last race.
Madefromlucky won the West Virginia Derby in a race that looked ugly watching it live. Consistent runner picks his spots and should be competitive. More of a grinder type, needs a few others to not deliver their top effort. Fits in this race and can take advantage if Frosted and Upstart don’t bring their top game. Capable of running his 90 speed figure and that may be good enough in this spot.
Gimme Da Lute has won 4 in a row on the west coast. The last 2 races were complete hand me races as he faced no serious competition in either race. Good example of winning some races and getting some confidence. Can race on the lead or near the lead. Enters in sharp form, but 9 furlongs may be a tad out of his reach. Capable if he runs his top race. Overall I think he will be overbet. Last 2 races he faced Cupcake City horses and his last 4 races have been 4, 6, 5 and 4 horse fields. Let’s see what he can do when faced with 9 other horses when 2 or 3 are going to step up.
Tommy Macho is overmatched and has regressed since allowance win on June 6th. Running style and race flow will not work in his favor and is another who is distance challenged by the 9 furlongs.
Battle Midway is 1 for 6 lifetime and has never won a stakes race. Faces several stakes winners and multiple stakes winners in this spot. Up against class wise and does not have the speed to run within 6 lengths at 9 furlongs.
Upstart ran a solid 4th in the Travers Stakes. In the Haskell he chased fast fractions off the layoff. His only “subpar” effort was in the Kentucky Derby. Lunch pail horse brings a solid effort every time and has the tactical speed and class to be strong in this spot. Odds should be right and is one of the few horses in this race with established G2 form. Will be near the pace every step of the way.
Mr. Z got the perfect prep with a better than looked Kings Bishop. Never going to be flashy with a big win, but Mr Z fits with this cast of characters and should sit a tactical trip. Should make his move going into the turf and see if he can finish with some energy. Love a good fight. Outside post should help him.
The Choice:
Frosted and Upstart have been the most consistent, Mr Z is a hard hitter. Those are the top 3 with established form. I’m picking Frosted with Upstart the 2nd choice. They are the class of the race, only question is the long campaign catching up with both of them?