Time now to release the hounds and present the 8 horses that will dominate my tickets on the Kentucky Derby 2014. The 8 horses below are the horses have the best chance to win the race. Some horses are very capable of winning and also capable of running 15th. Part One the Pretenders can be found here. Remember form your own opinions, consider arguments and make your final wagers. Good Luck. Remember the “Best” horse only wins the Derby about 20% of the time in the last 15 years. It’s the Derby. Take a swing!
California Chrome: Clear Cut favorite this year. Has dominated the last 4 races on the West coast, winning with authority and with fast times. Visually has dominated on the turn and entering the stretch. Has had trouble at the start in 3 of last five races. Quick, efficient stride has been his calling card. Pedigree still has question marks for 10 furlongs, but running style and quick burst of speed just put him near the leaders as they come for home. Fastest horse. Has to ship and run outside California for the first time. Capable of winning and most likely of winning. My Spidey Sense is high on this horse for some reason. Bottom Line: Can he run as fast at Churchill Downs as he did at Santa Anita?
Wicked Strong: Throw out the Florida races. His overall form is solid. Has faced top competition and last race was able to run down an impressive leader who set some fast fractions. Can run near the pace if the pace gets slow, but ideally sits in 2nd group of horses and makes one long sustained run. Doesn’t seem to have that burst of speed of most derby winners. Pedigree is a plus in this year’s field. Improving and still capable of first a new career top. His Remsen race is hard to handicap he ran a little erratic in the stretch and this was after running a length or two behind extremely slow fractions. Bottom Line: Can we safely throw out his Florida Form?
Tapiture: Last race was disappointing as they had him positioned off the pace, and then made a nice run entering the turn and then flattened out coming into the stretch. Was basically eased down the lane and I don’t think the race took a lot out of him. Rebel Stakes he galloped out evenly with Hoppertunity after losing a tough photo at the finish line while waiting for position entering the stretch. Dominated the Southwest Stakes. Maiden win was at Churchill Downs. Has only one bad race, which was last race. Expecting him closer to the pace and is capable of winning if everything goes right. Bottom Line: Can he get the 10th furlong?
Candy Boy: Ran a disappointing race in Santa Anita Derby. Layoff may have caused him to be a little flat. Ran closer to the pace than anticipated early and this may have caused the non-finish down the lane. His best race was a quick turn of foot, making one big run in the Cash Call Futurity that was done with Gary Stevens and expecting a similar trip and move in Louisville. Workout tab has been consistent and should like the distance. Looks like a router and built with large lung capacity and moved with long fluid strides. Seemed to improve when getting off the synthetic surfaces. Is another who can sit in the mid pack and make a move coming into the stretch. Has enough speed to stay with the field down the backstretch if needed. Looks good galloping this week. Lots to like and odds are going to be good. Bottom Line: Laying back and making one run from the half mile pole. He has the move!
Hoppertunity: Finished 2nd to California Chrome in the Santa Anita Derby. Moved up near the leaders entering the stretch and was not pushed down the lane. Did not start as a Juvenile. Has run 5 races since January. Rebel win was in the slop. His best efforts have come with a strong pace and he should get that in the Derby. Big long stride and yet agile in his couple of wins. The master of the Gallop Out. Pedigree says distance should not be a problem. Has galloped out strong in several races. Probably the one horse who I do not have any concerns with the distance. Has run inside of horses and near the rail in his maiden win. In the Rebel raced outside and was able to bump horses and keep his focus. Capable of winning. Bottom Line: Can he get in position to enter the turn? Should love the distance.
Samraat: This horse comes in a little un-noticed despite being 5 for 6. Loved the way he chased the leader down in the Wood Memorial. Did not see Wicked Strong in that race but really was competitive and put the nose down on Social Inclusion right at the wire. Has shown speed in a couple of early races, and also the ability to lay just off the pace. Works have been long and steady since January. Has been in training for a while, so a long campaign has already been in the books. Should be forwardly placed and is capable of engaging for the lead if the pace gets to slow. Expect a “Presser” trip and should be in the top 6 for most of the running. Has already outrun his pedigree. Bottom Line: He doesn’t Know he’s a New York Bred!
General A Rod: His best win was a come from behind win at Keeneland with a sweeping move. Has proved his class with the best horses in Florida. Was game in winning the Gulfstream Park Derby. Lost a photo finish to Wildcat Red after running near the pace in the Fountain of Youth. Made a 3-wide run into a slow pace in the Florida Derby. May not have been totally cranked for the last race and gets “The Truth” Joel Rosario who waited his time last year before moving at the correct time. Pedigree is solid for 9 furlongs and has the running style to come from behind or move into a hot pace. Like the fact that he has the speed to make a winning “move” which many of this year’s contenders lack. Bottom Line: Laying back and making one run, can put him in the mix.
Vicar’s In Trouble: comes in a winner of 3 of the last four races. Big wins in the Lecomte and Louisiana Derby were the result of slow to moderate fractions or no pressure. Has a burst of speed approaching the turn and that is why I’m leaving him as a win contender. He may finish 15th. I think he is capable of taking this field for a while on the lead and making a move halfway through the race. Pedigree says an off-track should not be an issue. Works of late have been confusing but overall nothing negative. Has proved speed, has proven class for this level. Like his loss out of the 13th post in the Risen Star as a good race to toughen him up and make a move. Came back in last race as the lone speed. Missed a few works going into the last race and may have a chance to go back to previous top. Bottom Line: Speed to stay close, gets a good trip and just maybe the pace is softer than anyone thinks.
The Pace:
I see a couple of pace scenarios in this race. The most likely is a contentious pace. Wildcat Red, Vicar’s in Trouble set a sub 48 fractions and battle with 1 another. At the 6 furlong mark, Calif. Chrome, Samraat and Tapiture make a move to put the pressure on. Tapiture and California Chrome and Sammy battle to the stretch. One of them 3 moves ahead.
2nd scenario involves Vicar’s in Trouble on a loose lead with slow fractions. California Chrome chases in 2nd, takes the lead after a mile and gallops to victory.
3rd scenarior involves a contentious pace with Wildcat Red, Vicar’s and Tapiture setting some strong fracttions – take turns exchanging leads and they “burn” each other out. Samraat, Uncle Sigh and Hoppertunity make a move going into the turn. California Chrome is strangled into submission and gets shuffled back. Candy Boy loops the field on the turn and wins by a comfortable 2 lengths out in the middle of the track.
The Choice:
First Off Shared Belief is the Best Horse not in the Race. Tough call I’m not one for picking 7 horses. I’m going with Candy Boy as my top selection. In the last 15 years about 10 Derby’s have been determined by pace or weather conditions. The weather looks good this year and I’m assuming a moderate pace. Candy Boy’s best races were maiden win coming from 6 lengths behind. His CashCall race is the still the race that says Derby, huge move on the backstretch and then I loved the way after getting blown away. Pedigree to get the distance. Should run better off the Santa Anita surface. I expect him to sit about 17th place and then to start picking off the speed. If I had to pick a 2nd horse it would be Samraat. He has been in steady training for awhile and that worries me. But he has the speed to make a move. He has been calm in all his races, he has no weird “habits” like many horses in this field. Battle Tested, speed, the ability to make a “move” going into the turn.
Normally I only release 2 selections: But a few people wanted a top 5 list:
#3: General A Rod – General A Rod came from 9th place and won at Keeneland at 7 furlongs in his debut. His second race he ran a game 2nd at Churchill Downs to Conquest Titan who ran a monster race that day. He is battle tested and toughened up to compete with the best of his generation.
#4 Tapiture – They are going to let him run near the pace and wing it – Bringing the Maquina
#5 Uncle Sigh – really feeling the New York Brawlers in this race. – One will run big
For A,B,C players:
A:
Candy Boy
B:
Uncle Sigh, Samraat,
C:
General A Rod, Tapiture