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The Ohio Derby

A purse boost to 500,000 has increased the level of interest and quality of field for the 2015 Ohio Derby.  Several Kentucky Derby runners have made this their summer stop on the Derby Circuit.

The Skinny:

Whiskey Ticket has started his career with 2 straight wins, including a gutsy Illinois Derby win in most recent start.  Recent works indicate fitness and speed figures are competitive in this spot.  Lacks experience but figures to run his race.

Far Right ran a sub par race in the Kentucky Derby, but bounces right back in a spot that fits his class level.  His best style is to run from behind and picked up a couple of wins this winter in races where the speed stopped.  Running style puts him at a dis-advantage on top.  Respect but not the one to fear.

Thirtysilverpieces was claimed 2 races back for 25K and invades from Indiana after a moderate turf effort.  Best races have been on the turf and speed figures are light and has not been able to compete on dirt with G2 or G3 horses.  Seems overmatched.

Divining Rod ran a winning race in Lexington and then raced competitive in the Grade 1 Preakness.  Has learned to rate but speed is still his top weapon.  Roster of horses that he has faced include Fame and Power, Carpe Diem and Ocean Knight is impressive and hits hard at this class level.  Preakness 3rd place finish is deceiving by making a mid race move and trying to win, he faded late and finished 3rd.  Overall Preakness effort was 2nd best behind American Pharoah.  Likely favorite.

War Story has dropped 4 straight and lost a 3 bagger to International Star over the winter and spring.  Been pointed to this race since 16th place finish in Louisville.  Is capable of showing speed and best races have come from behind.  Kent Desormeaux travels in to ride the son of Northern Afleet.

Tencendur is hard to get a handle on class wise.  Wood Memorial effort was solid and has raced 3 times on off tracks.  Pedigree says 9 furlongs may be a tad too much.  Capable of being in the Superfecta, but not sure he is “win” material.

Dekabrist is a clown show being raced over his head.  The owner of 16 lifetime starts and just 2 wins.  Has lost his last 10 races by an average of 12 lengths.  No Chance.

Mr Z owns a 13 race losing streak, while running against the best of his generation.  Runs quality races, but he needs a win and easier spot.  Capable but betting any horse off a 13 race losing streak and low price does not seem like a winning combination.  Jersey Joe Bravo becomes the 7th jockey to ride in the last 10 races.

Bodhisattva sports a 3 for 12 record and lost the Preakness Stakes by over 40 lengths.  Federico Tesio win was a non-listed stakes.  Not enough speed to spread out the field and not sure he wants 9 furlongs.  Hard to imagine a top 2 finish.

The Selection

Divining Rod looks to get a good trip in this race.  Mr. Z and Whiskey Ticket should ensure a good pace.  Divining Rod has learned to rate and should take the lead entering the stretch.  Far Right gets enough pace to make a late run.

Exactas:  Divining Rod   over  Far Right and Mr. Z

Far Right  Far Right over Divining Rod and Mr. Z