Round 3 of the Fairgrounds preps with a rematch of International Star and War Story. Mr. Z looks to get off the Duck and who or What is Fusaichi Flame?
The Skinny:
Stanford was thoroughly beaten in an overnight stakes race. Struggled late in that race and now runs 9 furlongs against better horses. His best running style is slightly off the pace, but inside post may put him near lead or on pace. Would have to dramatically improve to contend for the win.
Mr. Z is a tough horse to get a read on. He can compete with anyone, but can’t close the deal. Has had several horses jump up and run big races to defeat him in final strides. Danced all the dances and can run on the lead, or from just off the pace. He gets a new jockey in this race and recent works and long gallops should have him fit for this 9 furlong distance. Overall the “public” is down on him because of his tendency to “hang” and run 2nd or 3rd. Win odds may be right and this may be the spot to get his win. New Jock, blinkers off. Ready.
Defondo has run 4 races with 2 second place finishes. Another who is being ambitiously place in both class and distance. His only victory was as 6 furlongs and ran ok in last race on the stretch-out. Looks shaky, demand 30/1.
Fusiachi Flame very few horses I don’t know about. This is one of them. Wins are at Evangeline Downs and most recently at the Fairgrounds with a slow figure.
A Day in Paradise the Cowboy Larry Jones trains. Owns 2 wins in 5 starts and a sprinters pedigree. Last race was much the best in a minor stakes race at Sam Houston in which he was 1/5 in that race. Fractions will be contested and not sure he wants any part of open company with other proven speed and pressers in the race.
War Story worked a 5F work last week that showed much more speed than previous races. Smoking Joe Talamo jumps on and War Story should be closer to the lead and may get a good trip tracking Mr. Z in this spot. A well-timed run can put him in a position to win. Expecting him to be near the leaders and will try to get inside trip on International Star. War Story has run outside last 2 races. Inside position could find him in winners circle.
Keen Ice has gathered a lot of attention for a horse with one win and several slow finishes on his resume. His only win was a “Fluke” he made up 6 lengths in the stretch and one by 1 inch. He is closer to being a lifetime maiden than winning a top-level stakes race on the Derby trail. Yes he will close. Can’t for the life of me imagine him winning this race.
St. Joe Bay could be the speed of the speed and takes another shot on the front end. Ran well in the Risen Star. Faces pace pressure from Stanford who drew the one post. Will run a log way. But should get softened by the long stretch.
International Star has won back to back races with rail trips. Closed strongly in both races and 9 furlongs should be a distance he can get. Not sure he is going to get the same kind of trip. Recent works indicate fitness and drew outside. Hard to deny him a top 3 finish in this spot. Horse has impressed in last 2 races and fits in this spot.
Fair Line:
International Star 5/2
War Story 4/1
Mr Z 7/2
The Choice:
War Story gets a new jockey and draws inside of International Star which could even out that matchup. I’m going with Mr. Z. I have not picked him in the last 5 races. But he removes the blinkers. Should sit behind the speed and possibly get first run at the lead going into the turn. If St Joe Bay fades coming into the stretch. Mr. Z may inherit the lead. Overall I think he is a little faster and has consistently faced better horses. 7/2 is fair value on Mr. Z. Saturday is the day for Mr. Z!