The Risen Star Part Two has gathered for a larger purse and longer distance. Racing fans will get a chance to see the effects of pace and post positions and 3-year-old development on the road to the triple crown. Although 6 of these horses faced each other in the Risen Star – I predict a dramatically different result this time.
Albano found himself on the lead in the Risen Star and used that advantage to save ground lead the field out of the gate and around the track, losing in the final stride to Intense Holiday. Has worked consistently since the last race, and does not need the lead to run a good race. The distance of 9 furlongs is pushing it for this guy. Expect him to lay as a presser in this race and make his move down the backstretch to establish a top 4 position. The post position was not kind to him. Had the rail last time and other speed drew 13th hold. This race he draws the 10th post and speed is inside. Will have to come from slightly off the pace.
Vicar’s In Trouble used the 13th post position in the Risen Star to try some rating tactics and the results were positive as I watched the replay several times. Vicar’s In Trouble went into the Risen Star with back to back strong races figure wise. Vicar’s broke from the gate well, was rated by the jockey and made a mid race move to engage the leaders going into the turn, got within 1 length coming into the stretch and faded late. A strong run, despite the loss. Missed a couple of days of training in Gulfstream, but came back with 2 workouts in the last couple of weeks. He will be near the lead from the bell in this race and has the speed to take this field a long way near the pace. Slight regression in last race, hoping for bounce back to previous two big races.
King Cyrus brings an element of surprise to the Louisiana Derby. Prepped once at Calder for this trip to the Bayou and the running lines note wide around the turns. Not a bad effort off a long layoff. Pedigree indicates distance should not be an issue. Empire Maker on the female side is a good sign. Can run from mid pack. Seems well spotted with this field. Could improve 2nd effort off the layoff. Needs to improve to compete for the win, but a strong effort is likely possible.
Commanding Curve faced winners off the layoff in the Risen Star and much like Hoppertunity ran a credible race. The trainer indicated back in December the plan was a 2 prep campaign designed to have him run a strong race in the Louisiana Derby. Recent works have been long and should have him fit. Expect an improved effort and he will definitely be in the hunt on the turn. More contested pace should benefit hit fitness level and he may get the jump on Intense Holiday.
Rise Up went into the Risen Star a short horse, with only 4 work-outs leading into that race, he was headstrong early in the Risen Star and when the jockey asked him to rate, he sulked and did not run his best race. His weapon is speed and he ensures a solid pace and target in the Louisiana Derby, He will take this field a long way, but expect the 1,300 foot stretch to do him in late. The Risen Star was a work-out this is the race they were pointing for all along. Top 3 finish puts him in Kentucky. Hard to see him winning but a top 3 finish is possible. He will be sent and will ensure a above par pace and contested pace.
Gold Hawk won a couple of races and then disappointed in last 2 races. A six furlong workout a couple of weeks ago, kind of kick started him again and the pedigree is still solid for 9 furlongs. Ultimately he is a grinder/closer who should be about 7 lengths back in this field and then make a run going into the turn. If this speed starts to back-up this guy could possibly get involved in the finish. Does seem a little slower than the top contenders. Pedigree and recent workouts are very positive. Running style and speed figures are the negatives. Recent works are positive. Could go either way. Barn is under a lot of scrutiny.
Intense Holiday used very foot of the Fairgrounds Stretch and an excellent ride from Mike Smith to win the Risen Star. It’s been my experience 3 year olds who win races in the last stride are highly unlikely to repeat. Solid juvenile foundation and recent workouts indicate he will be a force to be reckoned with once again. Last time was lingering in 4th place before engaging the leaders 1/2 way down the stretch and then won in the final strides. Mike Smith rides again, but with more speed and I expect a sharper pace he may be further back in this race. Has the points to make the race, again another looking for a top 3 finish and to run his race. Not sold on him timing his run into a winning race, but should be in top 5 as they get halfway down the stretch. Expect a couple of other horses to make moves at the same time and his stretch run may be negated in this race. Will run well, but not sure he will actually win. Likely favorite won’t be on my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets. Should save ground but the 1st post position could work to a disadvantage if the field gets strung out and he has to rally wider than last time.
Louie’s Flower adds more speed to the mix. Lost all chance in last race after winning 3 races in a row, including bulky field at Remington Park. Son of Flower Alley has shown versatility in his wins and speed was his main drawing card for a couple of victories. Fuel to the fire if he chooses to be a pace factor, but may be out-classed on the speed end with more proven horses at a longer distance. Look for improvement but not enough to bounce back into the winner’s circle.
In Trouble ran a gut-wrenching race off the layoff at Aqueduct, dueling the entire way before losing late to Uncle Sigh and Samraat who were battle tested and in-shape going into the Gotham Stakes. Dutrow looked at the line-up of the Wood Memorial and decided to ship to the Bayou to take on a perceived “weaker” field. This horse has the pedigree and speed figures to be competitive, but Rise Up, ensures a strong pace and Albano and Vicar’s in Trouble won’t be idling too far behind, that puts In Trouble in a tough spot. His natural speed puts him near the lead, but engaging with Rise Up too soon may soften him up late. Overall he is behind the 8 ball, he was back on the work tab a little late and with just one race to prep, he will have to run a huge race to defeat this level of horses in his 2nd race of the year and 4th lifetime start. Tough call, but not sure if he is up to this challenge.
The Pace:
Rise Up figures to be on the lead setting the pace and I expect a sub 48 fraction for the half mile and 1:12 and change for 6 furlongs. In Trouble and Vicar’s In Trouble won’t be far behind. Intense Holiday is the closer. Commanding Curve and Gold Hawk will make stronger moves in this race than in the Risen Star.
The Choice:
Vicar’s In Trouble, and Commanding Curve both have a fair chance and the odds will be solid on both of them. Think both have a shot at winning and can be used in all positions. Vicar’s In Trouble is my top choice.