Los Al Derby:
The Champ – Shared Belief stretches out on the longest stretch in America when he takes on The Pride of Arizona and the Puerto Rican Sensation in the Los Al Derby.
Shared Belief looked sharp in his comeback win against the clock. Works have been solid since then, controls the race with his speed. The only question is how low of a price do you want to take on a horse that has never raced on real dirt. Shared Belief with a big effort could put himself on a list of short contenders for the 2nd half of the year. Big fan of his wins last year and an undefeated horses is always tough until they lose. Ultimately not sure if his style plays into the long stretch.
Candy Boy had no chance in Kentucky Derby when colliding on the backside and then never really threatening late in the race. Made a mid-race move in the Santa Anita Derby but flattened out showing more speed into a quicker pace. Works solid and this is a defining race for him. A win and he can think big things like Breeders Cup Classic a bad loss and it’s the Pomona Derby. Needs to lay back and make one move in this race to have best chance.
Top Fortitude ran into a freak in the Woody Stephens. Toss that race and could find himself on the lead in this race. Distance is within scope, lightly raced expect a bounce back effort.
Tonito M got inhaled on the front end by Bayern in last race after shipping cross-country. Should bounce back with a solid effort and is another who adds speed to the pace.
Selection: Candy Boy – has a shot. Shared Belief the obvious choice but lots of pace and only one prep to prepare for this race.
Belmont Derby:
Bobby’s Kitten is the ultimate bet against. He had everything his own way in the Penn Mile. Stretches out and faces more class and pace pressure in this race.
Toast of New York is a mystery no workouts listed since Dubai. His Dubai win was with soft fractions and beat a suspect field after putting them to sleep on the front end. Gets lasix and should like the distance.
Sheldon is an intriguing longshot, pedigree says distance should be no problem and has proven turf breeding on both sides. Have had this guy in my stable mail for quite a while. Took 7 races to break his maiden but should like the distance and I think he has a shot at a price.
Adelaide has run in graded races and gets lasix for this spot. Connections have done well in certain spots in America and this is the type of “big” race they like to win. Gaileo is a proven 10 furlong sire. With 4 lifetime races and proven distance ability. Will be bet hard and should be fire a big effort.
Selection: Dance with Fate is the obvious choice. Sheldon may outrun his odds and I expect him to be part of the trifecta at a huge price off the maiden victory.
Flamboyant has some intriguing form and Joel Rosario rides well on the Belmont Turf course. Steps up in class and may be up against the speed horses and not enough late kick to run with Adeliade and Sheldon.
Dance With Fate should like the turf and is a proven late runner. Has the ability to wait a long time before letting out his stretch kick. Ran evenly in the derby his one turf race was electric and think he may be the horse to beat in this spot.