Selecting a winner of the Kentucky Oaks and betting the Kentucky Oaks are two different animals. Many times a horse may have a better chance to win than to finish 2nd or 3rd. My selections will be at the bottom of the post. If you want some wagering advice follow along.
I see the Kentucky Oaks as having 5 likely scenarios. Many more combinations are possible and in betting even probable.
#1: Most Likely Scenario is that Dreaming of Julia is the best horse. She sits 2-3 lengths off the pace set by Beholder, takes command after 6 furlongs and wins by 2 lenghts, Unlimited Budget and Close Hatches chase down the lane and Beholder finishes 4th.
#2 It’s not always that simple, a second scenario is that Midnight Lucky takes the lead, Beholder engages after 4 furlongs those two horses waste all their energy while JR Velasquez is looking at all the women in hats and makes a move and pulls away – Beholder and Midnight Lucky finish 7th and 8th and gasping for air. Dreaming of Julia wins easily and everyone is talking about all the money they are going to make in Oaks/Derby Doubles.
#3 A third possible scenario is that Midnight Lucky is Pegasus with Ovaries and dominates this race after setting 45 and 3 for the half 1:10 and 1 for 6 furlongs and wins going aways and horses like Landaluce and Ruffian are trending on Twitter.
#4 A smaller chance is that Unlimited Budget is the real deal and this daughter of Street Sense has been under the radar all along and is peaked to run the race of her life. She lays 5 lengths off a brisk pace, engages Dreaming of Julia who got sucked into the fast pace too early and wins a drawn out stretch duel and remains undefeated.
#5 Less likely is scenario number 5. The Judge Richard Mandella has Beholder locked loaded and ready to run the race of her life. Midnight Lucky decides to rate for some reason, JR Velasquez can’t hold Dreaming of Julia back because of his sore arm and Beholder is ridden aggressively by Garrett Gomez opens up a three length lead with uncontested pressure, gets the half in :48, third quarter throws down a 23 and 3 quarter wins by a diminishing head, with Dreaming of Julia 2nd, Unlimited Budget closing for third, and phrases like JR Velasquez is a dumb*ss is trending on twitter.
Here’s how I’m betting the race:
If you think Dreaming of Julia is the winner: you play exactas over Close Hatches, Unlimited Budget and Princess of Sylmar, and Pure Fun
If you think Midnight Lucky is really the love child of Blame and Zenyatta and draws off by 5 lengths then you play exactas over Dreaming of Julia, Close Hatches and Unlimited Budget and Rose to Gold
If you think Unlimited Budget wins in scenario 4: Then Unlimited Budget in exactas over Dreaming of Julia, Close Hatches, Princess of Sylmar and Midnight Lucky. Since she is longer odds you cover more combinations. Worst feeling is having a long shot on top and walking around looking for cab fare after the race.
In Scenario # 5. Beholder wins and you play exactas over Dreaming of Julia, Princess of Sylmar, Midnight Lucky.
Mathematically Dreaming of Julia is about 5/2 to win the race but about 8/5 to finish in the money on my line. Unlimited Budget is about 6/1 to win the race. Beholder is 7/1 to win but 15/1 to show, I feel she is all or nothing. Midnight Lucky on my line is 9/1 to win and 16 to run 2nd. Midnight Lucky is either a win candidate or will be doing the Super Bowl Shuffle at the 1/16th pole. Bottom line is you have to be good, really good to win the Kentucky Oaks in your 3rd lifetime start. Especially with proven pace pressure and solid class in Beholder and Unlimited Budget and Dreaming of Julia. I like her, the sky’s the limit but this ain’t my first rodeo and my wallet stays close to the vest with these type on big days. I remember Mister Frisky and Lady Secret being pulled up and all kinds of goofy stuff.
In Oaks/Derby doubles I will put 60% of budget on Dreaming of Julia tickets
20% Unlimited Budget
8% Close Hatches
7% Beholder
3 % Princess of Sylmar
2% Midnight Lucky
Selections = Most Likely to win
Dreaming of Julia
Unlimited Budget
Close Hatches