Early speed is the word this year in the Kentucky Oaks. Several horses went wire to wire in big prep wins. Pace will make the race for the lillies and big favorite Untapable will be the hunted in this race. Below are some of my notes through the preps and races this spring.
Untapable is the heavy favorite and looms large over this field. Last 2 races have moved her to the head of the class of this filly crop. She has not displayed any crazy Tapit characteristics and has a solid mare in Fun House who has already produced a Derby runner. Untapable has a win over Churchill Downs. The only negative race on her form was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. That race was excusable because of lack of lasix and was off for two months going into that race. Running style has been close to pace in last 2 races, but with all the speed in this race. Expect to see her 5-6 lengths off the pace and finding a good spot. Has a quick burst of speed and work out reports have been positive for several weeks. Lots of muscle and look of a router. Stronger favorite with less weaknesses than California Chrome. Not sure post 13 affects her that much. Figures to stalk behind the speed, likes to make move from the outside in last 2 races.
Sugar Shock has come a long way since the start of the Oaklawn Park meet. With 4 races this year and 3 wins this daughter of Candy Ride has a 9 furlong pedigree and solid recent form. Consistent speed figures in all 4 races this year. Runs close to the pace and comes off a wire to wire victory in the Fantasy. Best races have been on the lead or near the lead, will have to fight several confirmed front-runners in this race. Everything is point to a strong race, but is she capable of rating behind Fashion Plate and My Miss Sophia and making a mid-race move to get into position? Likeable runner has come along way since the beginning of the year and will be interesting how she fits with this group.
Fashion Plate is a need to lead type and enters on a 3 race win streak, including 2 Grade 1 wins. California fillies were not a prolific bunch this season and Fashion Plate was able to get an easy lead in both victories. Last quarter in the Las Virgenes was a glacier 26 and change. Santa Anita Oaks she looked tired coming home. Will have to pick up the speed, while facing tougher horses at a longer distance. She has outrun her pedigree from a distance standpoint. Has speed to be involved early, but fractions will tell the story on how she finishes. Distance concerns and a pedigree that has a tendency to get injured early and often. Big questions are how long she is able to attend the pace with My Miss Sophia and how fast the fractions are for the 6 furlongs mark.
My Miss Sophia went through the ranks quickly and last race put it all together with a front-running score at low odds in the Gazelle. Unusual to see a horse start career at 5.5 furlongs in February end up in the Oaks a couple of months later. Brings speed to the party and could find herself on the front end with Fashion Plate and Sugar Shack, batting for the Alpha Female spot on the lead. Speed Figures and class puts Sophia in with a chance. Has run in small fields in two of three races. This is the type that could win or run 7th. Rising through the ranks fast and wonder if Gazelle took something out of her. That was a tough race.
Rosalind has alternated Polytrack starts with dirt starts and seems to be on the improve with a nice run in the Ashland a couple of weeks back making a wide move and dead heating for the win. Daughter of Brown Vow should like the dirt and has a running style ready to pick up the pieces if a total pace meltdown happens. Rosalind should get the nine furlongs. Her Gulfstream effort was a nice race off the layoff and small field. Joel Rosario has been in the saddle for 4 straight races and should be able to sit back and let the speed come back to the field. The fractions should be fast and contentious. Everything points to a top race. Expect her to get belly to belly and put in a good stretch run.
Aurelia’s Belle is on the upswing after the big win at Turfway Park in the Bourbonette Oaks. This salty daughter of Lemon Drop Kid and Danzig mare has one of the top distance pedigrees in the race. Like the fact she lost twice to the ill-fated Onlyforyou at Gulfstream while showing spead. Then at Turfway, had the rail but tucked in and rated and then went outside horses and went to the lead with a quick burst of speed. The runner-up in that race Sloan Square is a nice horse and that was an impressive win visually. Workouts have been spaced well. Five lifetime races and 5 in the money finishes. Capable of taking down the top prize if the pace is hot up front.
Ria Antonia ran a huge race at long odds in November in getting the win via a DQ in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies race. Chased the lone speed in last race when Fashion Plate had things her own way. Rallied into the soft pace and did not seem all out in that effort. Should like Churchill Downs, but pedigree is more tilted toward speed than classic distance horse. Ria would benefit from fast fractions up front and is another who will tuck in second flight behind the speed.
Got Lucky has some sleeper ability and has faced two monsters in races that did not fit her running style. She has the ability to come off the pace. Pedigree fits for 9 furlongs. Has been the brides-maid 4 times in 5 starts, but seems to be developing and should run all day with stamina influences on both sides. Made a move to get in position early in race against My Miss Sophia.
Please Explain was a surprise entrant into the field. Drew the rail and gets a new jockey switch that will be key. Best runs have been from behind. Should benefit from a speed duel and not totally outclassed in a race like this. Last race was disappointing. May be a cut below but has right running style and pace may be hot for her run.
Unbridled Forever may have been short in last race. Was flat with a wide trip and ran the same sort of wide rallying race and flattening out. Big win in the Silverbulletday in January put her on the short list of Oaks contenders and has some big names in the pedigree. Owns a big win over Churchill Downs last fall in a fast time and some good works in April. Seems ready to fire best race and look for a much better effort on Friday than in last race. Smaller horse and doesn’t carry a lot of weight.
ThankYou Marylou goes poly to dirt after making big move in last race and flattening out. Nice pedigree and local connections. Still able to improve with 4 lifetime races and 3rd race off the layoff. Sprint stakes victory at Gulfstream was a nice win from off the pace with a fast speed figure. Capable of making a move from mid pack and should get a more patient ride and more speed to run at in the Oaks.
The Pace:
Overall I’m pretty confident in a pace meltdown. This race has a quick pace duel and contentious pace written all over it. My Miss Sophia, Fashion Plate and Sugar Shack are all need to lead types and any one is capable of running a solid 47 for the half and continue running. If the pace is contentious this should bring the speed horses back to the field. Rosalind fires every race and Got Lucky both have races that can improve. Unbridled Forver races capable of making some noise. Untapable comes in a little dressed up, but has not missed a beat this spring and has the pedigree and running style to win.
The Selection:
Aurielle Belle is the choice for me. Rosalind has chance if a pace meltdown is most likely. Got Lucky is another horse I must use in doubles.