For those who are late to the party and want the Cliff Notes on the Kentucky Oaks below is 45 pages of personal notes condensed down into one blog entry. My thoughts, pondering and person bias’s observations on the 2013 Kentucky Oaks. If you want positive feel good thoughts on every horse about dapples, sunshine and roses and unicorns go read Steve Haskins. If you want the thoughts of a Saturday, Sunday fist clenching, swearing railbird horseplayer keep reading.
This year’s Kentucky Oaks is a perfect example of why they call this Horse Racing and not who the fastest horse is. The fastest horse or the best horse doesn’t always win (there is no such thing as the tooth fairy as well) I have been following the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks since 1988. All the opinions below are mine based on watching horse races and big races since that time.
Simply put this year’s oaks field has more depth, raw talent and horses peaking coming into this race than any Oaks since 1985. Win lose or draw whoever wins this cat fight deserves to wear the Lillies.
At the end of the day there will be one winner and 10 losers. My notes are my notes and my thoughts are my own thoughts based on experience. I could care less if Dreaming of Julia has a 114 Speed Figure. This is a horse race and that won’t mean squat when they put them in the gate Friday afternoon. Have Fun, good luck and play a few combinations that might actually make a mortgage payment!
Silsita: Lightly raced filly appears to be improving. Has never run on dirt and seems to be gutsy. Has one running style which is to be on the lead or near the lead, this year that describes 8 horses in this race. I have a better chance of getting run over by a milk truck in bed than Silsita does of winning this race.
Midnight Lucky: I’m not sure the Freak describes how potentially good this filly may be or may become or may have already shown. But ponder this – I watch races, lots of races and what this horse did on February 16th at Santa Anita was a thing of beauty. She aired in hand, while flicking her ears on the turn. In the Sunland Oaks she dominated a Stakes race in her second lifetime start without pressure and while drawing off. In 20 years I can probably name about 10 fillies who have been able to do something like that. Dollars to Donuts this year’s Oaks field is a strong one. Midnight Lucky has shown truly exceptional speed, remember you don’t need to rate if you are the fastest horse. Carl Lewis didn’t rate in the Olympics he was faster than anyone else. Can Midnight Lucky in her third lifetime start win the Kentucky Oaks with 3 other confirmed speed horses in the race. Can a horse with only two lifetime starts win the Oaks? Flute won the Kentucky Oaks with 3 lifetime starts but that year’s field did not have this kind of depth. The track record at Sunland is a bit suspicious, horses ran fast times all day and Midnight Lucky had no real competition, she ran the competition into the ground and drew off, she figures to get tested a lot more at the 6 furlong mark in the Oaks by Beholder, Dreaming of Julia and Unlimited Budget. The beauty in Midnight Lucky is the potential: After two starts the Oaks is the third. Al McGuire used to say the best thing about Freshman is they become Sophomores. Looking at her first two races and she by speed figures, class, and domination your talking some serious horse flesh that can match a set of PP’s like she has.
Beholder: A deserving two year-old champion. Maiden win last July was eye-opening and put everyone on notice of this speedy filly. October 4th win flat out ran a hole in the wind winning a 6 furlong race by 11 lengths in dominating fashion at Santa Anita. Her Breeder’s Cup Filly Juvenile victory was honest, game and decisive and while the margin was only 1 length she did all the running withstood the challengers and went on to victory. The racetrack was biased a little towards speed in the Breeders Cup more so on Friday than Saturday but a legitimate win. Garrett Gomez rode Beholder aggressively in the Las Virgenes and Santa Anita Oaks. Which sounds simple but many horses would have tried to rate. Beholder is fast and likes the lead and likes to win, to take her off that winning trifecta right now would be foolish. I have no doubt that with a clean break Beholder takes the lead out of the gate and sets the pace for 6 furlongs, if she doesn’t have the lead at the 6 furlong mark she is not winning. Speed is her calling card and you dance with the one who brought ya. Beholder is all race horse, has had a great spring with a workouts steady, consistent and with a purpose. The Judge Dick Mandella has been pulling the strings and has this filly ready to roll. Her best chance is to go the lead, she has the conditioning, and the experience over many of these rivals and sometimes that can take a race a long ways.
Unlimited Budget: A personal favorite, again burst onto the scene with a flashy maiden win, watching replays last November 9th this one stood out. Many of the good fillies in modern times have dominating maiden wins in past performances and Unlimited Budget drew away by 9 lengths with a fast clocking at Aqueduct last fall. In the Demoiselle she went wire to wire under a superior jockey ride by JR Velasquez in defeating Emollient. With two in hand victories this spring she should run a career best race. One of the few fillies who have won in wire to wire fashion and come off the pace, expect a big race Friday from Unlimited Budget. Unlimited Budget has never been put into an all-out drive, she has raced up to her competition so far, working nicely and win or lose this filly will win some races and lots of money this year.
Saneen Girl: With only one race this spring and her best career win in a very weak Golden Rod Stakes. She is about 10 lengths behind about 6 fillies in this race. She can’t steal it on the front end, too slow to win if the pace collapses and doesn’t have the internal speed to stay close, there is just no scenario that I can envision with her standing in the winner’s circle based on form, class, speed and tactical ability. It is what it is!
Princess of Sylmar: This is one of the few horses in this group that has shown improvement. Beholder, Unlimited Budget, Dreaming of Julia all flashed wide open daylight victories in their first career race. The Princess lost at Penn National and finished 4th in the process before winning her 2nd lifetime start by 19 lengths. It has bee rumored that at least two people looked up from the slots and actually saw the race. No one has officially verified the rumor. Princess dominated the Aqueduct Inner Track before betting into a 9 furlong showdown with Close Hatches in the last race. Solid Horse can close and has raced off the pace that versatility could be her best chance to possibly win the race with a pace meltdown or pick up some pieces if some of the “speedy” contenders go all in to win the race and leave nothing for the stretch when this filly starts to get rolling about 7 furlongs into the race. I’m not sure she is peaking, we may have seen her best so the other would have to regress to see her in the winners circle.
Pure Fun: Best race by Pure Fun was at Churchill Downs on November 24th drew off by 9 lengths. Hollywood Starlett was a solid close, but came against suspect compeition and possibly on a synthetic surface that a pure Prize – Storm Cat line of runner seem to like. Missed some training in January and has not looked her best in last two races. Her best chance is to lay back and make one run. That is what I expect to see on Friday. Trail the field early by 15 lengths and them see if the speed comes back to the field.
Dreaming of Julia: According to some speed figure outlets she is the world’s fastest horse ever! The Gulfsteam race was fluky good, but she also had a dominating maiden win and a 16 length win. Once is lucky, three times is a trend. She has talent, has the pedigree and she is ready to run a very strong race. Her last workout she was almost tripping over herself they were going so slow with her down the lane. A bottle up rocket I expect her to be close to the pace and that means it could be very contentious. Beholder, Midnight Lucky and Dreaming of Julia could bump and grind and rattle each other. Keep in mind the difference between fast pace and contentious pace. Beholder can run fast and still win, Dreaming of Julia can run fast and win and Midnight Lucky can run fast and win but if the three of them are making multiple moves down the backstretch heads going up and down and never getting a chance to breathe and relax fraction don’t mean anything, the horses will burn themselves up and lose the energy they will need late.
Rose To Gold: Amazing story purchased for 1,400 dollars at the sale and has now earned over $700,000. Her best races have been on the lead and in command by the 4 furlong mark. Her Honeybee domination of Flashy Gray does have a caveat. According to my Oaklawn Park records March 9th at Oaklawn was an extreme speed bias and Calvin Borel stole the race, on a normal track not sure she is much better than Flashy Gray. Problem is her fractions and the easy way she was able to establish those leads are going to be put in overdrive in this race. Beholder, Midnight Lucky are just faster and Dreaming of Julia and Unlimited Budget have tactical speed plus raw speed. Rose to Gold will probably rate and will have to win with a style she has never shown. The speed of the pack is determined by the speed of the leader and Rose to Gold may just be following in the footsteps.
Flashy Gray: Flashy filly won by 10 lengths in Maiden Breaker. Came back at Gulfstream with a win that was dominating and showed the ability to track fast fractions. Rose to Gold dominated Flashy Gray in the Honeybee in a biased race track. In the Fairgrounds Oaks Flashy Gray battled down the stretch with Unlimited Budget while not match the jockey did drop the whip late and she galloped out nicely. Has trained well in past week at Churchill and the cold weather may be too her liking as she ran solid last November at Churchill. Many times every spring horses come up from Florida and improve by 7-10 speed points. Flashy Gray is sitting on a big race and she has shown the ability to rate. Again Junior Alvarado if he is patient and lays 6 to 8 lengths off the pace and times his move may be his best chance at hitting the board and possibly winning. She is distance challenged pedigree wise so a trying to run on the pace with this pedigree going 9 furlongs could spell disaster.
Close Hatches: Joel “The Truth” Rosario rides this filly by First Defense out of a Storm Cat mare. Unraced Juvenile has gotten “good” in a hurry! dominated maiden win by coming from behind and winning by 7. Stretch out to a mile in her second lifetime start she pressed the pace and drew off to victory. In the Gazelle she faced a more experienced Princes of Sylmar and went to the lead on slightly inside rail speed bias and road the momentum into the stretch and then put the hammer down late an impressive win and not many horses in my years of watching races have been able to do. Three races. Three different styles and undefeated. Has trained well, has the pedigree, ridden by the hottest jockey in the country Rosario and trained by the Bill Mott who doesn’t like to chase empty wagons. Scary thing she is still improving.
Up for Debate:
Fastest Horse: Midnight Lucky, Dreaming of Julia
Most Dominating Horse: Dreaming of Julia
Most Versatile Horse: Unlimited Budget
Bred to go 9 furlongs: Dreaming of Julia, Unlimited Budget, Close Hatches
Best Bargain: Roses to Gold
Most Unlikely Winner: Saneen Girl
Improving: Midnight Lucky, Close Hatches, Unlimited Budget
Peaked: Rose to Gold, Princess of Sylmar
Poster Pin-Up Girl: Flashy Gray –
All Heart: Beholder
Tomorrow Night my final selections